Good afternoon! Luxury gyms are becoming the new status symbol. Millennials and Gen Z now make up more than 80% of gym members, and many are moving away from budget chains like Planet Fitness in favor of exclusive fitness studios. Some, like Dogpound, offer unlimited memberships for $100,000 a year. Others, like Heimat in LA, combine gyms with coworking spaces, pools, and restaurants, charging upwards of $350 a month.

It’s about more than just working out. Tera Studio in New York only allows members by referral, and Alo’s Beverly Hills gym is invitation-only with a celebrity following. These places focus on privacy, personal attention, and curated environments where members don’t need to worry about crowds or social media interruptions. For many younger gymgoers, the atmosphere is just as important as the workout.

MARKETS

• Stocks struggled for direction Thursday as investors weighed weak demand in the 30-year bond auction and Trump’s announcement of new chip tariffs though with carveouts for domestic producers. The S&P 500 dipped 0.08%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.32%, and the Russell 2000 lost 0.30%.

• Markets opened higher on news of a potential Trump-Putin meeting to discuss tariffs and Ukraine, but gains faded. Rising yields and underwhelming earnings dragged stocks back down, with bond market jitters once again stealing the spotlight.

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STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• Firefly Aerospace surged 34.11% in its Nasdaq debut after pricing its IPO above range at $45 per share. ($FLY)

• SunRun jumped 32.30% after reporting record battery installations, strong profits, and renewed optimism for the solar industry. ($RUN)

• Dutch Bros climbed 21.60% after beating earnings and revenue estimates, raising full-year guidance, and reporting a 6.1% same-store sales increase. ($BROS)

• Aris Water Solutions rose 19.32% after Western Midstream Partners announced a $1.5 billion acquisition deal expected to close in Q4. ($ARIS)

• Duolingo gained 13.75% after beating earnings and raising guidance, boosted by its AI-driven learning features. ($DUOL)

• Celsius popped 17.27% after reporting an 84% revenue jump last quarter. ($CELH)

• Topgolf Callaway Brands rose 8.76% after posting Q2 earnings far above expectations and raising revenue forecasts. ($MODG)

• AppLovin advanced 11.97% on an earnings beat and strong Q3 guidance. ($APP)

• Paycom Software gained 4.53% after beating earnings and revenue estimates and raising full-year guidance. ($PAYC)

• Zimmer Biomet rose 7.99% after lifting its full-year earnings outlook. ($ZBH)

• Becton, Dickinson & Co added 8.86% after raising its 2025 earnings guidance. ($BDX)

• Advanced Micro Devices rose 5.69% as tariff increases on imported semiconductors lifted chip stocks one day after its earnings drop. ($AMD)

• DoorDash gained 5.05% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and a 20% increase in total orders. ($DASH)

What’s down 📉

• Fortinet plunged 22.03% after issuing weak Q3 revenue guidance and receiving multiple analyst downgrades. ($FTNT)

• Crocs tumbled 29.24% after declining to provide full-year guidance despite an earnings beat. ($CROX)

• Eli Lilly fell 14.14% despite beating earnings and revenue and raising guidance, as investors reacted to obesity drug trial details. ($LLY)

• E.l.f. Beauty dropped 9.48% after profits fell 30% due to new tariffs on China goods. ($ELF)

• Airbnb slid 8.02% after beating Q2 estimates but warning of a weaker second half. ($ABNB)

• HubSpot fell 6.24% despite beating earnings and revenue estimates, as shares reversed early gains. ($HUBS)

• Warner Bros. Discovery lost more than 7.38% after reporting weaker-than-expected free cash flow and operating cash flow. ($WBD)

• Ralph Lauren sank 6.48% despite beating earnings and raising guidance. ($RL)

• Krispy Kreme fell 7.02% as poor earnings erased earlier meme-stock enthusiasm. ($DNUT)

PHARMA
Novo, Lilly, and Hims Struggle in the GLP-1 Weight Loss Drug Market

Novo’s crown slips

Novo Nordisk, once the undisputed king of weight-loss shots, is watching its grip on the GLP-1 market dissolve faster than its abandoned pipeline. After slashing its forecast last week, Novo confirmed the mess on Wednesday with a brutal Q2 report: revenue miss, experimental drugs scrapped, and a weight-loss pill quietly buried. Shares are down nearly 60% over the past year, with CEO Lars Jørgensen pointing fingers directly at telehealth players like Hims & Hers, claiming over a million Americans are now on “copycat Wegovy.”

Hims & Hers gets clipped

But Hims & Hers isn’t exactly thriving on Novo’s downfall. The once-hyped disruptor has its own growing pains. Last year, the company jumped on a GLP-1 shortage by offering its own semaglutide alternative, but that window is closing fast. Novo cut ties with the startup in June, accusing it of illegally selling GLP-1s. Meanwhile, the FDA is cracking down. Hims shares plunged nearly 23% this week after Q2 earnings fell short of Wall Street’s expectations despite flashy revenue growth.

Lilly swings (and sort of misses)

While its rivals struggle, Eli Lilly turned in a blockbuster Q2—only to get punished by Wall Street anyway. Despite raising guidance, Lilly shares fell more than 14% after releasing mixed trial data for orforglipron, its experimental weight-loss pill. The drug helped patients lose 11% of their weight, less than the 14% Wegovy average. Worse, one in four people on the highest dose dropped out due to side effects, throwing cold water on hopes the pill would be a simple, effective alternative.

A new chapter, but same old side effects: Even with the setback, Lilly isn’t quitting. The company is stockpiling orforglipron and prepping for a regulatory filing by year’s end. Pills are still seen as the next frontier in the $95 billion weight-loss market, thanks to lower costs and easier distribution. Novo, for its part, saw shares jump over 7% on Lilly’s pill stumbles—because in this three-way battle, someone else’s bad day is often your best catalyst.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 📉 Stocks mixed after weak bond auction, chip tariff news: The S&P 500 fell 0.08%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.32%, and the Russell 2000 dropped 0.30% after a weak 30-year Treasury auction and new chip tariff announcements. Utilities and consumer staples led, while financials and healthcare lagged. Sunrun, Celsius, and Duolingo rallied, while Crocs, Bumble, and Airbnb posted steep losses.

• 🖥️ Intel shares slide after Trump calls for CEO resignation: Intel ($INTC) fell 2.99% after President Trump said CEO Lip-Bu Tan is “highly CONFLICTED” and should resign. The comments followed a letter from Sen. Tom Cotton questioning Tan’s ties to China, citing illegal tech sales under his tenure at Cadence Design Systems. The scrutiny adds to Intel’s uphill turnaround battle after losing over $200 billion in market value in five years.

• 🚀 Rocket Lab tops revenue estimates but posts wider loss: Rocket Lab ($RKLB) reported Q2 revenue of $144.5 million, beating expectations, but posted a wider-than-expected loss of $0.13 per share. Q3 revenue guidance matched Wall Street forecasts, and shares were mostly flat after hours. The stock, up over 800% in the past year, has benefited from tensions between SpaceX and the Trump administration.

• 🛒 Instacart beats estimates and lifts profit outlook: Instacart ($CART) jumped 3.6% after reporting Q2 earnings of $0.41 per share on $914 million in revenue, topping expectations. Orders rose 17% year-over-year, and gross transaction value climbed 11% to $9.08 billion. The company also projected Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $260–$270 million, ahead of analyst forecasts.

• 💰 Crypto rallies as Trump allows it in 401(k) plans: Bitcoin ($BTC) rose 2.38% after President Trump signed an order allowing crypto, private equity, and real estate in retirement plans. The move opens $43.4 trillion in retirement assets, including $8.7 trillion in 401(k)s, to digital assets. Industry leaders called it a historic step toward financial freedom with growing allocations expected from younger investors.

• 🤖 OpenAI launches GPT-5, shifts default model: OpenAI released GPT-5 with improvements in logic, factual accuracy, and reduced hallucinations. Variants include GPT-5-mini, GPT-5-nano, and GPT-5-chat, aimed at different speed and cost needs. Older models will be phased out within 60 days, making GPT-5 the default for most users.

• 🚗 Hertz defends controversial AI damage scanners: Hertz ($HTZ) defended its AI-powered damage scanners, saying they improve transparency and precision. Critics argue they overcharge for minor or nonexistent damage, with some customers swearing off the brand. Hertz claims only 3% of rentals have damage fees, above the industry average of less than 1%.

• 📦 Shopify becomes Canada’s most valuable public company: Shopify ($SHOP) overtook Royal Bank of Canada after a blowout quarter and strong revenue growth guidance. The earnings pop briefly pushed the S&P/TSX to a record high. It’s the second time Shopify has claimed the title, though past Canadian tech leaders have struggled to maintain it.

• 🚙 Toyota warns tariffs will cost $9.5 billion: Toyota ($TM) expects US tariffs to cost $9.5 billion this fiscal year, the largest estimate from any company so far. The hit includes supplier impacts, with $3.05 billion already incurred in Q1. The automaker cut full-year operating profit guidance by $4.1 billion, or nearly 16%.

• 🏛️ Trump nominates Stephen Miran for Fed governor seat: President Trump nominated Stephen Miran, a former Treasury official, to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. If confirmed, he will help shape US monetary policy. The nomination comes as the Fed faces heightened political and economic pressures.

TRADE
Trump Targets Chipmakers With Tariff Threat as Trade War Escalate

Tariff Wars 2: The Chip Strikes Back

Trump’s trade strategy is back in full force, and it’s no longer just about playing ping-pong with tariff percentages. After reviving the “reciprocal tariff” playbook with sweeping levies on India, Brazil, and the rest, the administration is now shifting to something more targeted: sectoral tariffs, starting with semiconductors.

The White House is floating a 100% tariff on foreign-made chips unless companies manufacture in the US. That’s a bold threat, especially for a sector that has powered much of the stock market’s rally. Yet markets mostly shrugged. The Nasdaq even rose 0.35% and closed at a record high, while names like Apple and TSMC gained after promising more US production. Intel, meanwhile, slumped after Trump publicly called for its CEO to be fired.

Talk is cheap (unless you’re a chip)

Why aren’t investors panicking? The answer lies in what traders are calling the TACO trade short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” The former president has long used tariffs as both a pressure tactic and a bluff. UBS analysts expect the final effective tariff rate to land around 15%, just enough to lift inflation and slow growth without derailing the economy. Apple, Nvidia, and TSMC are already leaning into the manufacturing pivot, throwing billions into US-based chip plants to stay ahead of the curve.

Even so, the overall pressure is mounting. Yale’s Budget Lab says the average US tariff rate is now above 17%, the highest since the 1930s. That’s not just a historical stat it’s a flashing red light for trade-dependent industries. And while some firms are adjusting, others like Eli Lilly got hammered on Thursday, with its shares falling 14% on weak drug trial results.

The chips may fall but not just yet: So far, Trump’s tariff tsunami is more bark than bite, at least in the eyes of investors. But with the clock ticking on more trade deadlines like August 12 for China and August 27 for India the markets may not stay this calm for long. If these threats become reality, we could see the sharpest escalation in trade barriers since the Great Depression. For now, Wall Street is betting that the art of the deal still includes a last-minute exit ramp.

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Calendar
On The Horizon

Before The Open:

• Wendy’s faces the heat. The fast-food chain is coming off a rough Q1, with same-store sales slipping on lower foot traffic. Execs blamed economic headwinds and warned that Q2 wouldn’t be much better. They’re trying to reverse the slump with a cocktail of promotions, international growth, and a painful dividend cut. Friday’s results will show whether the fixes are working or if the fryer’s still too hot.

• Under Armour hopes to suit up stronger. The brand has been juggling two problems: rising tariffs and a tricky turnaround plan. It’s pivoting toward higher-margin gear and dialing back discounts, which sounds great on paper but may not land with price-sensitive shoppers. Tomorrow’s numbers will reveal if this premium play is paying off or pushing consumers out.

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• ✈️ United Airlines Grounds Flights After Tech Outage: United Airlines temporarily grounded flights nationwide last night due to a system outage. While operations later resumed, over 1,000 flights were delayed and dozens canceled. The airline has not disclosed the cause of the disruption. Passengers are facing continued travel headaches as crews work through the backlog.

• 🍫 Mars to Gene-Edit Cocoa Crops With Pairwise: M&M’s-maker Mars is teaming up with biotech firm Pairwise to develop gene-edited cocoa plants. The goal is to improve crop resilience and yield amid climate change and disease threats. Gene editing could also enhance flavor profiles and sustainability. It’s part of Mars’s broader push to secure its chocolate supply chain for the future.

• ☕ Drones Could Soon Deliver Your Morning Coffee: U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced a proposal to allow drones to operate beyond the pilot’s line of sight. The move would open the door for companies to use UAVs for services like coffee delivery. Advocates say it could revolutionize last-mile logistics. The proposal is subject to public comment before becoming law.

• 💎 Claire’s Files for Bankruptcy—Again: Accessory retailer Claire’s has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the second time since 2018. The company has faced declining mall traffic and rising competition from online sellers. Management says stores will remain open during restructuring. The filing underscores the continued struggles of legacy mall-based brands.

• ⚾ MLB Promotes First Female Umpire to Big Leagues: Jen Pawol will become the first woman to umpire a Major League Baseball regular-season game, starting with Saturday’s Marlins-Braves doubleheader on the bases. She will call balls and strikes for Sunday’s matchup. Pawol’s promotion marks a historic moment in MLB history. Fans and players alike will be watching closely as she takes the field.

• 🤝 Trump May Meet Putin and Zelensky: The White House said Trump could meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as soon as next week. While no date or location is confirmed, Trump called the chances of a three-way summit “very good.” A recent Gallup survey found 70% of Ukrainians support seeking a negotiated settlement to the war. The potential meeting would mark a rare joint appearance of all three leaders.

• 🔫 Army Sergeant Accused of Shooting Five Soldiers: Sgt. Quornelius Radford is in custody after allegedly shooting five coworkers at Fort Stewart Army base in Georgia. All victims are in stable condition, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The incident prompted a temporary lockdown of the facility. Authorities say Radford had no prior disciplinary issues in the military.

• 💉 RFK Jr. Halts $500M in mRNA Vaccine Funding: Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. canceled 22 federally funded mRNA vaccine projects. Kennedy cited consultations with NIH and FDA experts, saying the technology’s risks outweigh its benefits for respiratory viruses. Former Surgeon General Jerome Adams criticized the move as one that “will cost lives.” Supporters of mRNA technology note its success in developing COVID-19 vaccines.

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