Good afternoon! Is your biggest rival even in your own game? For NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, the answer is often no. In sports reporter Ken Belson’s upcoming book, Goodell drops this gem: “We’re not competing with the NBA or MLB. Our competitors are Apple and Google.”

It’s a fair point. The NFL has such a chokehold on the sports world that league-vs-league matchups barely move the needle. The real fight is for eyeballs, and Goodell’s league is swinging hard—taking a 10% stake in ESPN this week, adding equity in CBS yesterday, and still dominating as live TV’s top draw. Silicon Valley might have met its match.

MARKETS

• Markets ended the week in rally mode, powered by upbeat earnings and another surge from the Magnificent 7. The Nasdaq notched a fresh record, and the S&P 500 came within a hair of doing the same.

• On the trade front, today was Trump’s deadline for Russia to commit to a Ukraine ceasefire. No breakthrough yet, but a face-to-face with Putin is reportedly in the works. And over in Tokyo, Japan breathed a little easier after US negotiators agreed to hold off on stacking tariffs.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• LegalZoom surged 31.18% after Bank of America upgraded the stock to buy from underperform and hiked its price target 43% above current levels. ($LZ)

• Tripadvisor gained 11.68% after beating EPS estimates and lifting its revenue forecast, though revenue slightly missed expectations. ($TRIP)

• Doximity climbed 13.71% after topping earnings estimates and announcing the $63 million acquisition of AI startup Pathway Medical. ($DOCS)

• Natera jumped 7.70% after Q2 revenue exceeded the highest Wall Street estimate and the company raised its full-year revenue and margin outlook above prior guidance. ($NTRA)

• Gen Digital rose 7.71% after beating Q1 earnings estimates and raising annual revenue and profit forecasts on strong cybersecurity demand. ($GEN)

• Gilead Sciences advanced 8.28% after reporting Q2 earnings and revenue that topped expectations. ($GILD)

• Viavi Solutions added 7.58% after beating quarterly estimates and issuing above-forecast guidance for the current quarter. ($VIAV)

• Monster Beverage climbed 6.40% after beating earnings and posting record revenue, prompting an analyst upgrade from Piper Sandler. ($MNST)

• Fannie Mae surged 19.90% and Freddie Mac jumped 20.91% after reports they plan to go public later this year. ($FNMA, $FMCC)

What’s down 📉

• Trade Desk plunged 38.61% after multiple analyst downgrades, despite an earnings beat, as the CEO warned Q3 revenue growth could slow due to tariff and inflation pressures. ($TTD)

• Under Armour dropped 18.07% after missing Q1 earnings and revenue estimates and warning tariffs will weigh heavily on profits and sales. ($UAA)

• Sweetgreen fell 23.06% after missing Q2 expectations and slashing full-year revenue guidance for the second time in two quarters. ($SG)

• Goodyear Tire & Rubber sank 18.52% after posting an unexpected Q2 loss and warning that inflation, tariffs, and other costs could rise sharply. ($GT)

• Yelp lost 9.22% after narrowing its full-year revenue guidance to the low end of its prior range, below analyst estimates. ($YELP)

• Pinterest declined 10.31% after missing Q2 profit expectations despite beating revenue forecasts. ($PINS)

• Microchip Technology fell 6.57% after issuing Q2 guidance that failed to meet Wall Street’s expectations. ($MCHP)

• Take-Two Interactive Software dropped 4.03% despite beating estimates and raising its annual bookings forecast. ($TTWO)

• Block slid 4.50% despite beating earnings and raising full-year guidance. ($SQ)

• Figs fell more than 5.04% despite beating earnings, as it guided for only low-single-digit revenue growth in 2025. ($FIGS)

TRANSPORTATION
Uber Pulls Ahead as Lyft Struggles in Q2 Ride-Hail Showdown

The Battle of the Ride-Hail Titans

Uber and Lyft hit the track this week with Q2 results, and the scoreboard couldn’t look more different. Uber crossed the line strong — revenue sped up 18% from last year, gross bookings rose 17%, and management slammed the gas with a $20 billion share buyback. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi told CNBC there’s no sign of “weakness in the consumer,” even if the stock eased 3% Friday.

Lyft? More of a sputter. The smaller rival missed revenue and gross bookings estimates, though it surprised with earnings of $0.10 per share — more than double forecasts. The market still docked it 1.5% on the week, keeping it firmly in Uber’s rearview mirror.

The Self-Driving Showdown

Forget human drivers — both companies see the future on autopilot. Uber already has 20 AV partners and driverless rides in a dozen cities, with Waymo cars now chauffeuring passengers in Austin and Atlanta. Khosrowshahi claims those rides outperform 99% of human drivers, and Uber’s ready to spend $300 million with EV maker Lucid to deploy 20,000 autonomous vehicles over six years.

Lyft’s lagging in AVs but making bold moves to catch up. It just inked a partnership with China’s Baidu to unleash robotaxis across Europe and dropped $200 million on FreeNow, a major European ride platform. Analysts still have both stocks rated “overweight,” which means Wall Street thinks this race isn’t over — but Uber’s clearly got the pole position right now.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 🚀 Nvidia Hits Record S&P 500 Dominance; Nvidia ($NVDA) now holds the largest weight in the S&P 500 of any company since records began in 1981. This comes just weeks after it became the first public company to hit a $4 trillion market cap, driven by relentless AI demand. Its trailing P/E ratio is also the highest for a top S&P 500 stock since Microsoft in 1999.

• 🤖 GPT-5 Impresses and Embarrasses: OpenAI’s GPT-5 wowed with advanced coding, physics, and math skills but stumbled on basic tasks like spelling and geography. CEO Sam Altman called it a “PhD-level expert in anything,” yet public testing revealed failures in counting letters and mapping states. The missteps highlight the limits of probabilistic AI models outside of structured problem-solving.

• 💹 Palantir Surges to New Peak: Palantir ($PLTR) jumped 21% this week to close at $186.96, extending a 150% year-to-date gain. Its Q2 beat-and-raise report spurred analyst price target hikes, though its valuation rivals dot-com-era extremes. Momentum suggests no immediate slowdown despite sky-high metrics.

• 🎲 Sports Betting Giants Slip on Tax Concerns: Flutter Entertainment ($FLUT) and DraftKings ($DKNG) fell despite posting strong earnings, as investors focused on rising state tax risks. Flutter introduced a fee on Illinois bettors to offset a surcharge but doesn’t expect similar moves elsewhere. Both companies also offered no firm plans for entering prediction markets.

• 🧳 Expedia Pops on Strong Guidance;:Expedia ($EXPE) beat Q2 estimates with EPS of $4.24 and revenue of $3.78 billion, raising its full-year outlook. International demand and a 17% jump in its B2B segment offset U.S. softness. Shares are up 66% over the past year as high-end consumers keep spending.

• 🏃 Under Armour Tanks on Weak Outlook: Under Armour ($UA) fell over 20% after guiding Q2 earnings and revenue far below forecasts. Management cited $100 million in new tariff-related costs and softer demand. Restructuring charges of up to $50 million are also still ahead.

• 💰 SEC and Ripple End Appeals: The SEC and Ripple Labs agreed to dismiss appeals in their long-running legal fight over unregistered securities. XRP trading volume more than doubled on the news before prices slipped. The resolution clears a major regulatory overhang for the cryptocurrency.

• 🖥 Tesla Disbands Dojo Supercomputer Team: Tesla ($TSLA) is shutting down its Dojo project to focus on other AI chip designs. Elon Musk said future training will increasingly use Nvidia ($NVDA) and AMD ($AMD) chips. Musk’s AI company xAI will remain a major Tesla partner.

• 🎮 Take-Two Rises on Strong Quarter and GTA 6 Hype: Take-Two Interactive ($TTWO) beat Q1 expectations and raised its full-year guidance. Mobile gaming drove over half of sales, with “Grand Theft Auto 6” set for a May 2026 release. Analysts expect massive sales upon launch.

• ⚾ Netflix Eyes MLB Home Run Derby Streaming: Netflix ($NFLX) is in talks to stream Major League Baseball’s Home Run Derby. The deal would be another step into live sports content for the platform. Bloomberg reports negotiations are ongoing.

• 🩺 NASA and Google Build AI Health Assistant for Mars Missions: NASA and Google ($GOOGL) are developing an AI medical assistant for Mars-bound astronauts. The tool is designed to provide autonomous care in cases where communication with Earth is delayed. It’s part of efforts to make long-duration space travel safer.

• 🏦 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac IPO Plans Move Forward: The U.S. government plans to take mortgage giants Fannie Mae ($FNMA) and Freddie Mac ($FMCC) public later this year. The IPOs would be a major step in reshaping housing finance. Both companies have been under government conservatorship since 2008.

STOCK
Trade Desk Stock Crashes 39% on Slowing Growth and Amazon Threat

Trade Desk’s Worst Day Ever

The market darling of ad tech just got taken to the woodshed. Trade Desk shares collapsed 39% Friday — the steepest plunge in company history — after Q2 results and guidance confirmed what many feared: growth is losing steam. Revenue hit $694 million, beating estimates, and EPS came in at 41 cents, in line with forecasts.

But Q3 guidance for at least $717 million implies just 14% growth, down from 19% last quarter. That slowdown, paired with the abrupt exit of CFO Laura Schenkein — set to be replaced this month by Salesforce veteran Alex Kayyal — was enough to vaporize more than three months of stock gains in a single day.

Amazon’s Shadow Looms

Investors aren’t just worried about softer growth — they’re rattled by the Amazon factor. The e-commerce giant’s demand-side platform has been scooping up premium ad inventory and forging high-profile partnerships, including a June tie-up with Roku. Wedbush, MoffettNathanson, and Citi all cut ratings, warning Trade Desk’s once-clear value proposition could erode as Amazon’s footprint expands. CEO Jeff Green waved off the threat, arguing Amazon’s “walled garden” bias limits its reach across the open internet. But some analysts called the comments naïve, even “dangerously out of touch,” given the competitive momentum building in Amazon’s favor.

From Premium to Problem: Heading into earnings, Trade Desk still traded at a lofty 13.7x forward sales — more than double the Nasdaq 100 average. That multiple was built on the assumption it could sustain 20%+ long-term growth. Now, with shares down more than 50% year-to-date and sentiment collapsing to its lowest in over two years, Wall Street is reassessing.

Bank of America slashed its price target from $130 to $55 and cut the stock to Underperform, while MoffettNathanson went even lower at $45. The message: in a crowded ad-tech field, the margin for error just disappeared.

Former Zillow exec targets $1.3T

The top companies target big markets. Like Nvidia growing ~200% in 2024 on AI’s $214B tailwind. That’s why the same VCs behind Uber and Venmo also backed Pacaso. Created by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso’s co-ownership tech transforms a $1.3 trillion market. With $110M+ in gross profit to date, Pacaso just reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.

Invest for $2.90/Share

_{Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.}

Calendar
On The Horizon

Next Week

Plenty to chew on next week, starting Tuesday with July’s CPI reading—a fresh pulse check on inflation. Wednesday takes a breather, but Thursday brings July PPI and the latest jobless claims. Friday closes it out with retail sales, import prices, and an early read on August consumer confidence.

Earnings season is finally easing up after two nonstop weeks, but the slowdown doesn’t mean silence—there are still a few names worth keeping on your radar.

Earnings:

• Monday: Oklo, AMC Entertainment, Barrick Mining, Sphere Entertainment, and AST Spacemobile

• Tuesday: ON Holdings, CoreWeave, Circle Internet Group, eToro, and H&R Block

• Wednesday: Cisco, D-Local, Brinker International, and Venture Global

• Thursday: JD.com, Applied Materials, Advance Auto Parts, Deere & Co., and Birkenstock

• Friday: No big announcements, so get your weekend started early!

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• 🇮🇳 Modi Says India Will “Pay a Very Heavy Price” to Protect Farmers: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he is willing to endure significant economic consequences to safeguard the interests of farmers, fishermen, and dairy producers. His remarks followed President Trump’s move to raise tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, citing India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. Modi defended the decision as protecting national priorities against foreign pressure. Analysts say the standoff highlights deepening trade tensions between the two nations.

• 🚗 Trump’s Tariffs Have Cost Automakers Nearly $12 Billion: Global automakers have lost an estimated $12 billion in operating earnings due to Trump’s new tariffs. The losses reflect higher import costs, disrupted supply chains, and uncertainty in production planning. Companies now face the choice of absorbing those costs or passing them on to consumers. Analysts warn that extended tariff pressure could further weaken global auto sales in the months ahead.

• 🕵️ FBI to Help Locate Texas Democrats Who Fled the State: The FBI will assist Texas authorities in locating Democratic lawmakers who left the state to block a Republican-led redistricting vote. The legislators fled to deny Republicans a quorum, stalling the measure from advancing. Texas officials have issued civil arrest warrants for those involved. The move raises questions about federal involvement in a state-level political standoff.

• 🔥 Canyon Fire Near L.A. Spreads Across Over 1,500 Acres: A wildfire that broke out yesterday north of Los Angeles has already scorched more than 1,500 acres. Strong winds and dry conditions have fueled rapid growth, forcing thousands to evacuate. Fire crews are working to contain the blaze as officials warn the situation could worsen if weather conditions deteriorate. The fire adds to the growing toll of an already severe wildfire season.

• 🥀 Brandon Blackstock, Kelly Clarkson’s Ex, Dies at 48: Brandon Blackstock, the former manager and ex-husband of Kelly Clarkson, died at the age of 48 after a private battle with cancer. His family confirmed the news and requested privacy during the grieving process. Blackstock built a notable career in artist management, working with several high-profile clients. His passing has sparked tributes from across the entertainment industry.

• 🎭 Hamilton Marks 10-Year Run With Its Last Original Cast Member:
  It’s been a decade since Hamilton premiered on Broadway—celebrated in style by spotlighting Thayne Jasperson, the only remaining original cast member still performing as Samuel Seabury. Jasperson says the role still feels fresh thanks to subtle tweaks and his commitment to intentional performances. Cast and creator Lin-Manuel Miranda praise his dedication and consistency on stage. The Washington Post described him as practically living at the theater, keeping the energy alive night after night.

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