🚘 Lyft Surges 28%

Good afternoon! Amazon just debuted Vulcan, an AI-powered warehouse robot with a sense of touch—literally. Vulcan uses force sensors to gently stow and pick items from high shelves, handling about 75% of warehouse inventory without damaging goods. Already live in Spokane and Hamburg, Vulcan has processed half a million orders and is designed to work with humans, not replace them.

Despite speculation, Amazon says 100% automation isn’t the goal—Vulcan is here to reduce injury risks and speed up hard-to-reach tasks, not put workers out of a job. Employees are shifting into higher-skilled roles managing these robots, though not all report pay bumps just yet. As Amazon looks to expand Vulcan’s presence in 2026, the real payoff may come from fewer warehouse mistakes—and fewer returns.

MARKETS

• Markets opened with a bounce on Friday after President Trump teased “many trade deals in the hopper” and hinted the U.S. might ease its steep 145% tariffs on Chinese imports ahead of weekend negotiations in Switzerland. But optimism faded fast as traders shifted into wait-and-see mode, unwilling to bet big without more concrete progress.

• The Dow slipped 0.3%, the S&P 500 dipped just below flat, and the Nasdaq barely moved—marking a lackluster end to a choppy week. After two solid weeks of gains, all three indexes posted losses, as Wall Street paused for breath before the next chapter of the trade saga unfolds.

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STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• Lyft rallied 28.08% after swinging to a profit and expanding its share repurchase plan. ($LYFT)

• Insulet soared 20.88% after crushing Q1 expectations on both the top and bottom lines and raising full-year guidance. ($PODD)

• Trade Desk jumped 18.60% after a strong quarter, reporting EPS of $0.33 vs $0.25 expected and revenue of $616M. ($TTD)

• Microchip Technology gained 12.60% after posting strong Q1 guidance and beating Q4 revenue estimates. ($MCHP)

• Cloudflare climbed 6.32% following a beat-and-raise quarter and its largest-ever contract win. ($NET)

• Pinterest rose 4.88% after topping Q1 estimates and issuing upbeat guidance for Q2. ($PINS)

• BP added 4.13% amid takeover speculation from peers like Chevron and Shell. ($BP)

What’s down 📉

• Sweetgreen plunged 16.18% after slashing its full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance. ($SG)

• Affirm sank 14.47% after issuing Q4 revenue guidance below analyst expectations. ($AFRM)

• Expedia dropped 7.30% as a revenue miss and soft guidance outweighed a small earnings beat. ($EXPE)

• Peloton declined 5.38% after a deeper-than-expected quarterly loss. ($PTON)

• Coinbase lost 3.48% after missing revenue estimates due to weaker trading activity. ($COIN)

• United Airlines slipped 2.69% following another major outage at Newark Airport. ($UAL)

EARNINGS
Lyft closes 28% higher after issuing buyback and posting bookings growth

Americans may be skipping five-star dinners and European getaways, but one thing they’re not giving up? A Lyft ride.

Shares of the ride-hailing company skyrocketed 28% Friday after Lyft reported a blowout first quarter. Ride volume surged 16% year-over-year to 218.4 million, gross bookings climbed 13% to $4.16 billion, and the company pulled off an earnings surprise—posting a modest $0.01 per share when Wall Street was expecting a loss.

The cherry on top: Lyft announced it’s expanding its share buyback program from $500 million to $750 million, quelling a months-long campaign from activist investor Engine Capital and giving the market exactly the kind of confidence jolt it was craving.

Accelerating Past Expectations

Lyft has now logged 16 straight quarters of double-digit gross bookings growth, and it’s not just coastal metros fueling the momentum. The company is growing fast in underserved markets like Indianapolis (+37% rides) and Canada (+50% rides), while also launching premium ride options and dipping its toes into taxi hailing across Europe.

That’s a clear shot at Uber, which earlier this week disappointed investors with slower-than-expected gross bookings and concerns about a drop in inbound travel. The two rivals are now poised to clash in new arenas—including less densely populated cities, where car dependence is high and public transport options are limited.

From Underdog to Contender?

Despite Uber still dominating ~75% of the U.S. rideshare market, Lyft’s comeback narrative is gaining traction. CEO David Risher says demand is strong and that he sees “nothing to worry about” from the consumer side—even as inflation jitters hang over the economy.

With improved earnings, a renewed investor mandate, and a laser focus on expanding its network, Lyft is no longer just along for the ride. It’s gripping the steering wheel—and for now, Wall Street seems happy to buckle in.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 🛡 Google agrees to $1.4B Texas privacy settlement: Google will pay nearly $1.4 billion to settle a 2022 lawsuit over allegedly unlawful tracking of Texas residents ($GOOGL).

• 🚀 Rocket Lab drops on wider loss and cash burn: Rocket Lab reported record Q1 revenue but missed on profit and warned of rising costs as it pushes to launch its Neutron rocket later this year ($RKLB).

• ✈️ Expedia slides on soft US travel demand: Expedia missed Q1 revenue targets as domestic bookings cooled, joining Hilton and Airbnb in signaling a broader travel slowdown ($EXPE).

• 🏆 TKO lifts outlook despite profit miss: WWE and UFC parent TKO Group beat on revenue but missed on EPS, while raising full-year guidance after acquiring new sports properties ($TKO).

• 📈 Monster Beverage hits all-time high: Shares of the energy drink giant climbed 2% to a record, cementing its place as the best-performing S&P 500 stock since 1995 ($MNST).

• 🔧 Nvidia modifies chip for Chinese market: Nvidia will release a weaker version of its H20 AI chip for China to comply with U.S. export rules, impacting $18B in orders from firms like Alibaba and ByteDance ($NVDA).

• ✈️ British Airways parent orders 30 Dreamliners: IAG will buy 30 Boeing 787s with GE supplying engines, while the U.S. Air Force says new Air Force One jets could arrive by 2027 ($BA, $GE).

• ⚖️ Court revives $1B Citi fraud lawsuit: An appeals court reinstated a $1B case accusing Citigroup of enabling fraud at Mexican firm Oceanografia ($C).

• ❤️ Match Group cuts 13% of workforce: Match will eliminate 325 jobs to streamline under new CEO Spencer Rascoff ($MTCH).

• 🇮🇹 Google faces $3.3B lawsuit in Italy: Italian firm Moltiply is suing Google for alleged antitrust violations that hurt its price comparison business 7Pixel ($GOOGL).

EARNINGS
Affirm shares drop 13% on weak forecast, concerns over CEO’s bet on 0% loans

Affirm stunned Wall Street with a surprise profit in Q3, posting earnings of $0.01 per share versus an expected $0.03 loss. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) soared 36% to $8.6 billion—above estimates—and revenue landed at $783 million, right in line with forecasts.

But investors weren’t impressed. Shares dropped 13% Friday after Affirm’s Q4 revenue guidance missed the mark, with the midpoint falling below analyst expectations. The selloff reflects broader market jitters around tariffs, inflation, and consumer softness—particularly among lower-income shoppers.

So…How Does 0% Make Money?

Affirm’s secret sauce is installment loans, often marketed at 0% interest. While that might sound like charity, it’s not. In these cases, the merchant—not the customer—pays Affirm a fee (usually around 2–6% of the purchase) for offering the financing. Why? Because it boosts conversion rates, increases basket sizes, and attracts new customers. It’s like Affirm playing credit card, but with clearer terms and more flexibility.

The strategy is gaining traction—13% of GMV now comes from these no-interest loans, often on big-ticket items through Apple and Amazon partnerships. But there’s a trade-off: 0% APR loans generate lower revenue per dollar spent, pressuring take rates and margins. That explains why Affirm’s revenue less transaction costs came in lighter than hoped.

Zooming Out

Despite the weak outlook, analysts like Goldman Sachs and Barclays still see Affirm as a category leader with room to grow. GMV for next quarter is projected to land between $9.4B and $9.7B—above expectations—and Affirm insists its credit performance remains “solid.”

Even with Friday’s dip, Affirm stock is up nearly 35% this year. But with the economy cooling and margins thinning, Levchin’s bold 0% bet will be under the microscope next quarter.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Next Week

Things kick off calmly, but economic releases pile up fast. Tuesday brings fresh small business sentiment and the closely watched CPI inflation report. By Thursday, it’s an economic buffet—featuring producer prices, jobless claims, regional Fed manufacturing reads, and builder confidence. The week closes with import prices, housing starts, and a first glimpse at consumer sentiment to round out the macro picture.

Earnings:

• It’s a lighter stretch for earnings, but a handful of big names will still step up to the mic throughout the week.

• Monday kicks off with updates from Hertz, Dole, Fox, Rigetti, and DaVita—plus, monday. com reports on a Monday (how fitting).

• Tuesday brings a global flavor with JD. com and Petrobras, while Under Armour, Intuitive Machines, and Oklo check in stateside.

• Wednesday features Cisco, Boot Barn, and newly public Ibotta.

• Thursday is stacked: Walmart, Alibaba, Cava, Take-Two, Deere, and Birkenstock all share their latest results.

• Friday closes with a lone name: Flowers Foods rounds out the week.

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• ⛪ First American Pope Elected: Cardinal Robert Prevost, a Chicago native, has been elected pope and taken the name Leo XIV. The multilingual former missionary, seen as a unifying figure within the Church, was a surprise pick and becomes the first American to lead the Catholic Church’s 1.4 billion members.

• 🚙 Ford Hikes Prices on Tariff-Hit Models: Ford is raising prices on three Mexico-built models—including the Mustang Mach-E and Bronco Sport—by up to $2,000. While shielding customers from the full hit, Ford says Trump’s auto tariffs will still cost it $2.5 billion this year.

• 🤖 OpenAI Taps Instacart’s CEO: OpenAI hired Instacart CEO Fidji Simo to run its business operations as Sam Altman shifts his focus to research and AI safety. Simo had already served on OpenAI’s board and led Instacart through its IPO last year.

• 💸 Bill Gates Accelerates $200B Giveaway: Bill Gates will now give away nearly all his wealth by 2045 and shutter the Gates Foundation in the process. His new focus includes halving child deaths from preventable disease and backing a groundbreaking HIV gene therapy—while also criticizing Elon Musk for slashing US foreign aid.

• 🧟‍♀️ AI Revives Agatha Christie and the Dead: An AI-taught writing course by "Agatha Christie" and a courtroom video featuring a victim recreated with AI have ignited debate over posthumous tech. Startups and big tech alike are building “deadbot” tools, prompting ethical concerns over grief, privacy, and consent.

• 🇳🇿 New Zealand’s Shrinking Sheep Lead: Sheep now outnumber Kiwis just 4.5-to-1, down from 22-to-1 in 1982, as farmers pivot away from wool toward more profitable dairy. There are still over 23 million sheep roaming New Zealand’s green hills.

• 🕶 Meta’s AI Glasses Stir Privacy Debate: Meta is developing “super-sensing” smart glasses that use facial recognition to identify people and display real-time information. The feature raises major privacy concerns, especially over consent and surveillance in public spaces.

• 💎 De Beers Shuts Down Lab-Grown Diamond Unit: Citing falling prices and oversupply, De Beers is closing its synthetic diamond brand Lightbox and shifting focus back to natural diamonds. The lab-grown market has seen value plummet due to weakening demand.

• 🚨 FEMA Director Fired Amid Restructuring Fight: Acting FEMA chief Cameron Hamilton was removed after opposing potential agency cuts. The Trump administration appointed David Richardson as interim head, sparking concern over FEMA’s future role.

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