Good afternoon! Thinking Machines Lab, led by ex-OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, just raised $2 billion at a $12 billion valuation without a product on the market. The company plans to launch its first tool in the coming months, featuring open-source elements aimed at helping researchers and startups build custom AI models.

TML says it’s building multimodal AI that collaborates with users through conversation and sight. Details remain scarce, but with backing from a16z, NVIDIA, and Jane Street, anticipation is sky-high. Murati’s track record—and the mystery makes this one of the most-watched AI launches on the horizon.

MARKETS

• Stocks took a rollercoaster ride Tuesday after reports surfaced that President Trump plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The market dipped sharply on the news before recovering just as fast when Trump walked it back. By the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq inched up 0.1%, and small caps roared ahead with a 1% jump.

• While traders were busy doom-scrolling for Powell updates, the economic data delivered a pleasant surprise: wholesale inflation came in flat. Normally, that would be enough to lift markets on its own but in D.C., nothing is ever that simple.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• BitMine Immersion Technologies surged 12.11% after Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund disclosed a 9% stake in the bitcoin miner. ($BMNR)

• SharpLink Gaming and Bit Digital jumped 29.03% and 19.45%, respectively, as optimism over stablecoin legislation drove ether-focused stocks higher. ($SBET, $BTBT)

• MARA Holdings and MicroStrategy climbed 3.62% and 3.07%, respectively, as bitcoin proxies rallied alongside broader crypto enthusiasm. ($MARA, $MSTR)

• Johnson & Johnson rose 6.19% after posting strong Q2 earnings and raising full-year guidance across several key metrics. ($JNJ)

• BrightHouse Financial popped 6.23% on reports that private equity firm Aquarian Holdings is eyeing a buyout. ($BHF)

• Tesla gained 3.50% after announcing plans to launch a new six-seat Model Y in China this fall. ($TSLA)

What’s down 📉

• GrabAGun Digital Holdings sank 23.90% on its public debut, with investors unimpressed by the Trump Jr.-backed firearm e-commerce platform. ($PEW)

• SolarEdge Technologies plunged more than 8% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to neutral, citing its recent 100% run-up. ($SEDG)

• ASML dropped 8.33% after warning it may see no growth in 2026, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns. The news dragged Broadcom and AMD lower as well. ($ASML, $AVGO, $AMD)

• Ford declined 2.85% after announcing a recall of nearly 700,000 SUVs over potential fuel leaks and fire risk. ($F)

RECRUITING
Meta Poaches More 2 More OpenAI Researchers in Superintelligence Push

Meta’s quest for artificial superintelligence just claimed two more high-profile casualties from OpenAI. Researchers Jason Wei and Hyung Won Chung have jumped ship to join Meta’s newly formed Superintelligence Lab, bringing the total number of OpenAI defectors to at least 10. The two were close collaborators, previously working on deep research models including OpenAI’s o1, and their move marks a fresh escalation in the AI talent war.

Follow the Money, and the GPUs

Meta’s lure is more than just a paycheck, though the money is jaw-dropping. Wired reports the company paid one AI executive from Apple a staggering $200 million. Alongside the compensation is the promise of unmatched compute resources, camaraderie with trusted colleagues, and the opportunity to help shape Meta’s long-shot bid for AGI. For researchers already pushing the limits of model reasoning and agent autonomy, the offer is hard to ignore.

At OpenAI, the exits are reportedly hitting a nerve. Chief Research Officer Mark Chen compared the departures to a home invasion, while CEO Sam Altman warned that Meta’s approach could create deep cultural issues. Internally, the loss of researchers who built foundational models like o3 and helped advance reasoning architectures isn’t just symbolic, it’s operational.

The Great AI Migration

Wei and Chung aren’t just top-tier scientists. They represent a trend of elite AI researchers migrating in pairs or packs, often bringing cohesion and speed to new labs. Their previous overlap at Google and OpenAI reflects this strategy. Zuckerberg seems to be leaning into it, stacking his new lab with bonded teams rather than solo stars.

These hires are the latest in a broader AI arms race that now looks less like friendly competition and more like high-stakes talent warfare. With billions flowing into compute infrastructure and governments eyeing AGI as a national security issue, the moves happening today could define who leads the next era of AI.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 🚀 Peter Thiel’s fund reveals 9.1% stake in BitMine: Bitmine Immersion jumped over 20% premarket as Thiel’s Founders Fund disclosed a major position, sending the ETH-treasury firm’s shares soaring. ($BMNR)

• 🛰️ Amazon taps SpaceX for satellite launch: Amazon is launching 24 satellites with SpaceX to meet a 2026 FCC deadline, while delaying its browser-based Alexa debut until after July 31. ($AMZN)

• 🧠 Hewlett Packard Enterprise reaches deal with Elliott: HPE is creating a new strategy committee and adding KLA’s chair to the board to boost shareholder value under pressure from activist Elliott. ($HPE)

• 📻 SiriusXM debuts low-cost, ad-supported tier: The new plan targets trial users in cars as SiriusXM shifts to advertising to recover from falling revenue and user churn. ($SIRI)

• 🧸 Pop Mart expects 350% profit spike: Despite strong demand and booming YoY performance, shares of the Chinese toy firm fell 6% on skepticism around its Labubu-fueled growth. ($9992.HK)

• 🤖 Two more top OpenAI researchers defect to Meta: Jason Wei and Hyung Won Chung join Meta’s “superintelligence” team, part of at least 10 recent poaches amid billion-dollar AI buildouts. ($META)

• 📉 Stocks and bonds whipsaw as Trump denies firing Powell: Markets plunged then recovered after Trump denied reports he’d fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, despite multiple leaks suggesting he’s weighing it. ($SPX)

• 🚙 Ford slips after issuing major SUV recall: Shares fell nearly 3% after Ford recalled nearly 700,000 vehicles over fire risks, adding to an industry-leading 88 recalls this year. ($F)

• 💊 Johnson & Johnson pops on top- and bottom-line beat: Shares rose over 6% after strong Q2 earnings and raised guidance, with other drugs offsetting Stelara’s slowing sales. ($JNJ)

• 🧪 Rigetti jumps as its quantum system achieves new milestone: The firm said its modular 36-qubit quantum computer hit a 99.5% fidelity target, boosting hopes for a commercial quantum future. ($RGTI)

• ⚠️ ASML tumbles after saying growth in 2026 isn’t guaranteed: Despite beating Q2 estimates, the chip equipment giant warned of macro uncertainty and cautious spending by AI customers. ($ASML)

• 🏦 Bank of America rallies on strong second-quarter earnings: Earnings and net interest income came in above expectations, pushing the stock higher in premarket trading. ($BAC)

• 💰 JPMorgan is now worth more than three largest rivals combined: The bank posted $30B in H1 profits, more than double its closest rival, and remains far ahead in investment banking. ($JPM)

• 🐄 Chick-fil-A’s apps are ruling the roost on iOS charts right now: The company’s food and entertainment apps surged to the top two download spots after relaunching “Code Moo” and other cow-themed content. ($PRIVATE)

INDUSTRY
ASML Shares Slide Nearly 10% on Cooling Demand and Trade Worries

ASML stock sank nearly 10% after the company poured cold water on hopes for 2026 growth. The semiconductor equipment giant reported solid second-quarter earnings, but it wasn’t enough to calm investor nerves. The real problem? Tariff drama is back, and ASML’s customers are getting cold feet.

A One-of-a-Kind Company

ASML isn’t just any chip supplier — it’s the only company in the world that makes extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines, used to etch the tiniest transistors onto the most advanced chips. That gives it a chokehold on the future of AI, with clients like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung. In short, no EUV means no cutting-edge chips. But that doesn’t make ASML immune to global chaos.

CEO Christophe Fouquet had previously told investors that 2025 and 2026 would be solid growth years. This time, he walked that back. Third-quarter guidance missed expectations, and the company said it could no longer confirm any growth for next year. CFO Roger Dassen added that tariff anxiety has sharply intensified, with clients waiting for clarity before signing big orders.

Tariffs Cloud the Road Ahead

Washington’s escalating trade fight is making chipmakers flinch. While chips have been spared from reciprocal tariffs so far, Trump has floated the idea of hitting semiconductors next. That’s pushed customers into wait-and-see mode, despite strong demand for AI infrastructure. ASML’s own net bookings were solid across both EUV and legacy tools — it’s just that no one wants to commit without knowing what rules will exist in six months.

ASML’s warning hits at a sensitive time. Markets have been pricing in 2026 as a blockbuster year for AI growth. When a key supplier in the chain signals uncertainty, it reverberates across the sector. Even if the demand is there, tariffs and export controls may delay when or if it actually shows up on the balance sheet.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Thursday’s data dump is no joke, investors will be parsing everything from retail sales and jobless claims to import prices and builder sentiment. It’s a snapshot of the American consumer, the labor market, and housing all in one morning, which means markets could get a little twitchy.

Before Market Close:

• Earnings season rolls on with reports from names like TSMC, PepsiCo, and Abbott, but all eyes are on Netflix after the bell. With subscriber growth hitting a natural ceiling, the streaming giant’s next act hinges on how well it can monetize eyeballs. Its latest bet? Live sports. The big question: are those multimillion-dollar broadcasting rights paying off or just padding the expense column?

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• 🔒 Crypto bills stall in Congress: The U.S. House voted against advancing key crypto-friendly legislation, delivering a blow to “Crypto Week.” The procedural failure delays reforms despite growing bipartisan interest. Trump has expressed support, but internal divisions remain a hurdle.

• 🌐 Amazon delays Alexa web rollout: Amazon is pushing back the launch of its browser-based Alexa past the July 31 deadline. The delay comes amid internal restructuring and renewed AI priorities. The web version was meant to broaden Alexa’s accessibility.

• 🧠 Polymarket cleared for U.S. comeback: The DOJ and CFTC have ended two investigations into crypto prediction market Polymarket. The move removes a major regulatory obstacle. It could pave the way for Polymarket to expand legally in the U.S.

• 📻 SiriusXM debuts cheaper, ad-supported tier: SiriusXM has launched a $7/month ad-supported plan to reduce user churn. The move targets drivers using free trials in cars. It’s a strategic shift as the company leans more into advertising.

• 🚗 Tesla’s top North America exec departs: Troy Jones, head of Tesla’s North American sales, has left after 15 years. His exit adds to a growing list of leadership departures. Tesla’s broader sales slowdown may be driving the internal shakeup.

• 🎵 Unreleased Beyoncé music stolen in Atlanta: Thieves broke into a rental SUV used by Beyoncé’s choreographer and stole flash drives with unreleased music and tour plans. The theft occurred during her “Cowboy Carter” tour stop. Police are tracking the devices but no arrests have been made.

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