👀 Jamie Dimon: The economy could ‘deteriorate’ soon

Good afternoon! According to Sam Altman, every ChatGPT query uses about one fifteenth of a teaspoon of water (roughly 0.000085 gallons). In a new blog post, the OpenAI CEO tried to demystify the resource costs of AI, likening each query’s energy use to what an oven burns in a second or what a high-efficiency bulb uses in two minutes. His takeaway: intelligence is getting cheaper, and eventually it’ll cost little more than electricity.

Sure, a few drops per query doesn’t sound like much—but when multiplied across billions of prompts, the picture changes. Researchers have warned that AI could outpace Bitcoin in energy consumption by the end of the year. One study even found that a 100-word AI-generated email guzzled more water than a standard bottle. Turns out, even artificial intelligence needs a hydration budget.

MARKETS

• Markets took a breather Wednesday after a three-day run, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.27% and the Nasdaq falling 0.50%. A modest pullback came as investors weighed softer-than-expected inflation data and a preliminary U.S.-China trade agreement to ease tariff tensions.

• May’s inflation numbers showed little impact from recent tariffs, calming fears—for now. Meanwhile, the trade deal talks added optimism, but not enough to keep momentum going. The Dow ended virtually flat, signaling a wait-and-see mood across Wall Street.

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STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• Oklo surged 29.48% after being conditionally selected to power an Air Force base in Alaska, pending NRC approval. ($OKLO)

• Dave & Buster’s jumped 17.74% after reporting better-than-expected same-store sales and noting improving trends in June. ($PLAY)

• SailPoint climbed 14.66% after beating earnings expectations and raising its fiscal forecast. ($SAIL)

• Quantum Computing rose 25.38% and Rigetti Computing added 11.39% after Nvidia’s CEO said the sector is reaching an inflection point. ($QUBT, $RGTI)

• Papa John’s popped 7.45% after reports surfaced that the pizza chain is being taken private. ($PZZA)

• Bread Financial rose 4.23% after May credit metrics showed improvement in loss and delinquency rates. ($BFH)

• Goldman Sachs gained 1.51% after a bullish note from BofA analysts highlighted the firm’s resilience and adaptability. ($GS)

• General Motors ticked up 1.92% after announcing a $4 billion investment to ramp up U.S. car production. ($GM)

What’s down 📉

• Chewy dropped 10.98% despite beating revenue estimates, as earnings missed forecasts. ($CHWY)

• GitLab slid 10.60% after issuing a disappointing revenue outlook for the upcoming quarter. ($GTLB)

• Cleveland-Cliffs fell 8.10%, Nucor lost 6.06%, and Steel Dynamics slipped 2.82% after reports of a potential U.S.-Mexico steel tariff rollback. ($CLF, $NUE, $STLD)

• GameStop dropped 5.31% after Q1 revenue fell significantly year over year. ($GME)

• Lockheed Martin fell 4.26% after the Pentagon cut its F-35 jet order in half. ($LMT)

• Sunrun dipped 1.81% on a Jefferies downgrade amid concerns about residential solar funding. ($RUN)

MARKETS
Jamie Dimon: The economy could ‘deteriorate’ soon

We might have our next Michael Burry. Jamie Dimon isn’t ringing alarm bells but he’s definitely tapping the glass. The longtime JPMorgan Chase CEO told investors that the economy’s much-hyped “soft landing” might get bumpier soon, with real indicators like employment and inflation poised to slip in the coming months. At a Morgan Stanley conference, Dimon warned that government support is fading, tariffs are starting to sting, and “tectonic plates” like trade and geopolitics are shifting.

While inflation cooled in May and job growth slowed, Dimon thinks the impact of tariffs hasn’t fully surfaced yet. He floated a timeline of “July, August, September, October” for when the data might start to bite. In his view, it’s not all doom—but even a mild deterioration could shake markets. He also flagged risks in private credit markets and shrinking immigration as additional pressure points.

Bankers Join the Reality Check

Dimon wasn’t alone in sounding cautious. Wells Fargo’s CFO said consumer loan growth could decline this year, and Citigroup is setting aside more reserves to brace for potential losses. The overarching vibe? Lenders are tightening their belts ahead of what could be a choppier second half of 2025.

Meanwhile, the World Bank slashed growth forecasts for 70% of global economies, including the U.S., citing trade discord and fading policy certainties. A “soft landing” looked likely just six months ago—now, economists are watching for turbulence. As Dimon put it, “The buts are real.”

What’s Next? Eyes on the Data: Markets are still holding out hope for a Goldilocks economy—cooling inflation, steady growth, no major shocks. But with consumer sentiment fragile and business confidence slipping, the next few months may tell a different story. Dimon’s not saying the ship is sinking. Just… maybe don’t go full speed ahead.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 🚕 Tesla rises after Musk “tentatively” sets date for robotaxi service: Shares bounced back after Elon Musk said the first Tesla robotaxi ride will launch June 22 in Austin, with a driverless trip scheduled for June 28—his birthday. The recovery follows a selloff triggered by Musk’s online feud with President Trump which have seemed to be resolved, which also wiped $150B off Tesla’s market cap. ($TSLA)

• 🛩️ Lockheed Martin dives on diminished outlook for F-35s: Shares dropped 4.2% after the Pentagon halved its funding request for new F-35 jets. The program accounted for 26% of Lockheed’s total revenue last year. Meanwhile, drone makers Joby and Archer rose, as did Palantir, which supplies software for unmanned aircraft. ($LMT, $JOBY, $ACHR, $PLTR)

• ✈️ Airlines including American, Delta, and JetBlue take a beating amid lower airfares and spending softness: The airline group was the worst-performing S&P 500 sector Wednesday as airfares dropped 7.3% YoY in May. American Airlines fell 6.6%, Delta 4.9%, and JetBlue 3.8%. American Express also noted ongoing weakness in airline spending, and tariff fears continue to dampen travel demand. ($AAL, $DAL, $JBLU, $AXP, $LUV)

• 🎬 Disney, NBCUniversal sue AI image startup Midjourney for copyright infringement: The suit accuses Midjourney of generating images that infringe on IP from Disney, Pixar, Marvel, and DreamWorks. Plaintiffs cited prompts producing characters like Darth Vader, Shrek, Spider-Man, and Elsa, calling the platform a “bottomless pit of plagiarism.” ($DIS, $CMCSA) 

• 🛃 Bessent floats extending tariff pause for countries in ‘good faith’ trade talks: As Trump’s 90-day tariff pause nears expiration, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled the administration may extend the deadline for the U.S.’s 18 key trading partners — but only if they're negotiating in “good faith.” The comments follow an announced but vague trade agreement with China. ($MSFT)

• ☁️ Oracle shares climb 8% as earnings, revenue top estimates: Oracle beat expectations for earnings and revenue, and said cloud infrastructure growth will exceed 70% in fiscal 2026. The company also highlighted major partnerships with Cleveland Clinic, IBM, and G42. Shares popped in extended trading. ($ORCL)

• 🏦 Chime’s IPO will test public market appetite for fintech: Chime is set to begin trading on Nasdaq, pricing its IPO between $24–$26 per share — a big drop from its $25B private valuation in 2021. While revenue jumped 32% YoY, the IPO could be a key litmus test for other fintechs waiting to go public. ($CHYM)

• 🩱 Victoria’s Secret posts mixed Q1 results, says tariffs will ding profitability by $50 million: The company reported revenue ahead of expectations at $1.35B, but missed earnings estimates and posted a net loss. It cut its full-year profit outlook due to $50M in tariff-related costs, and guided below expectations for Q2. ($VSCO)

• 🛒 A cyberattack on United Natural Foods disrupted supply to Whole Foods: The breach led to product shortages, and UNFI shares have dropped 17% since the incident was disclosed on Monday. ($UNFI, $AMZN)

• ✈️ Boeing secured 303 new orders and delivered 45 jets in May: It marked the aerospace giant’s sixth-highest order month ever, and it met its 737 MAX monthly production target of 38. ($BA)

ECONOMY
Inflation Taps the Brakes, For Now

The May CPI report landed lighter than expected, giving markets a reason to exhale and the White House a reason to press “cut rates” even harder. Consumer prices rose just 0.1% from April, and 2.4% from a year ago—cooler than the 0.2% monthly increase analysts predicted. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) also ticked up just 0.1%, with annual growth slowing to 2.8%, both below expectations.

Shelter prices did most of the heavy lifting again, while used cars, apparel, and airfare actually got cheaper. Meanwhile, egg prices fell 2.7% in May, finally offering some relief after a year of breakfast sticker shock.

Tariffs? Not Yet. But Don’t Get Too Cozy.

Despite widespread concerns that President Trump’s tariffs would ignite a pricing inferno, this report suggests the fire hasn’t started yet. Energy prices dropped 1% last month, helping offset broader pressures, and many companies appear to be leaning on inventory stockpiles to delay passing on higher costs.

But that delay has an expiration date. Analysts warn tariff-driven inflation could show up in full force later this summer once supply chains tighten and consumer demand stabilizes.

Cue the Rate Cut Chorus

Following the report, Vice President JD Vance took to X, calling the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates “monetary malpractice.” He’s echoing Trump, who’s been pressing Jerome Powell to lower borrowing costs publicly and, allegedly, in private meetings.

Markets, meanwhile, aren’t holding their breath. The Fed is widely expected to stand pat at next week’s meeting, with the CME FedWatch tool giving a 99% chance of no cut. But September is a different story especially if inflation keeps cooling and the labor market starts to crack.

A Trade Truce, Kind Of: On the global stage, Trump and Chinese officials shook hands (metaphorically) on a 55% U.S. tariff rate and a 10% Chinese counter. In exchange, China will fast-track licenses for rare earth mineral exports, and the U.S. will let Chinese exchange students back in. Analysts called it a “handshake for a framework,” and markets responded with a shrug.

The reality? We’ve seen this show before. Between export bans, student suspensions, and tariff ping-pong, this “deal” might just be an intermission. Still, for tech companies reliant on rare earths, it’s a tentative win. For everyone else, the next act is TBD.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Tomorrow

With CPI in the books, Wall Street’s focus shifts to its lower-profile sibling: the Producer Price Index. PPI tracks what suppliers and manufacturers are charging for goods, giving investors a behind-the-scenes look at inflation before it hits store shelves. It’s not as headline-grabbing as CPI, but it still offers clues on how sticky pricing pressures really are. If PPI comes in hotter than expected, it could throw cold water on hopes that inflation is cooling cleanly.ut don’t get too excited—tomorrow’s forecast calls for a big ol’ zero in growth.

Before Market Open:

• Adobe finds itself at a strange crossroads in the AI age. Its legacy in creative software should make it a clear winner in an AI-driven world—and it has leaned in, loading tools like Photoshop and Premiere with generative features. But the same AI tailwind is also empowering rivals to offer similar tools for free, eroding Adobe’s moat. Still, the company boasts a rock-solid balance sheet and disciplined leadership, making it a tempting hold for investors who believe quality wins out in the long run. ($ADBE)

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• 🇺🇸 Khaby Lame Self-Deports After Visa Issue: TikTok’s most-followed creator voluntarily left the U.S. after being detained by ICE for overstaying his visa. The self-deportation avoids a formal removal order but has sparked political chatter about Trump-era immigration enforcement making a comeback.

• 🏢 Paramount Lays Off 3.5% of U.S. Staff Ahead of Merger: Paramount Global trimmed hundreds of roles as it awaits approval for its Skydance Media merger. The layoffs are part of a longer restructuring process, following a $6B asset write-down in 2024. Execs say it’s a move to future-proof the business amid cable’s decline.

• 🍽 Hampton Inn Served 30 Million Waffles in 2024: The Hilton-owned chain sold 90 million room nights and dished out 30 million waffles last year—part of the reason it’s now the largest hotel brand in the U.S. Execs say even business travelers can’t resist a self-serve waffle station before hitting the highway.

• 🧠 Zuck Assembles AI 'Superintelligence' Dream Team: Mark Zuckerberg is forming a high-powered AI unit at Meta to build models “smarter than humans,” surpassing the goals of most rivals. The team will be housed near Zuck’s office, include Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, and tap into Meta’s massive compute power. Despite recent stumbles—including Llama 4’s underperformance—Zuck is personally recruiting with offers hitting nine figures.

• 🪖 Military Deployments to LA to Cost $134M: The Pentagon says the 60-day deployment of National Guard troops and Marines to L.A. will cost $134 million. Governor Newsom is suing to block it, calling it federal overreach. Trump, however, doubled down, warning D.C. parade protesters this weekend would face a “very big force.”

• 📉 World Bank Predicts Weakest Growth Since the 1960s: The global economy is projected to grow just 2.5% this decade—its slowest pace since The Andy Griffith Show was topping TV ratings. The World Bank cites worsening trade discord and downgraded forecasts for 70% of world economies.

• 📉 Google AI Drains News Site Traffic: Google’s AI Overviews and new AI Mode are gutting traffic to media sites like HuffPost and The Atlantic, which report 50–55% declines in organic search over three years. As Google answers user queries directly, publishers are seeing their traffic (and ad revenue) dry up—forcing layoffs and lawsuits.

• 📰 Mark Guiducci Named Vanity Fair’s New Editor: Condé Nast has tapped 36-year-old Vogue alum Mark Guiducci to lead Vanity Fair. He replaces Radhika Jones starting June 30, bringing a younger, more image-forward style to the iconic magazine as it battles for relevance in the digital age.

• 🌪 Trump to Phase Out FEMA After Hurricane Season: President Trump says FEMA will be dissolved after 2025’s hurricane season, transferring disaster relief to governors and the White House. Critics say the plan risks chaos, especially for smaller states, as FEMA already faces staffing and readiness concerns.

• ⚖️ OneTaste Founders Convicted of Forced Labor: Nicole Daedone and Rachel Cherwitz of OneTaste were convicted for coercing vulnerable followers into unpaid, sexually exploitative labor under the guise of wellness. They face up to 20 years in prison. The group’s so-called “orgasmic meditation” is now legally condemned.

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