🎇 Figma's Market Moment

+ Microsoft and Meta Soar as AI Spending Fuels Market Rally

July 31, 2025

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Good afternoon! A police officer in Argentina just won $12.5K from Google after a Street View camera snapped him sunbathing nude in his backyard. Though his face was blurred, his street name and house number weren’t making it easy for neighbors, coworkers, and eventually the entire internet to ID him and mock him mercilessly. The kicker? He was behind a 6.5-foot fence and thought he was safe from prying eyes.

While a lower court initially blamed him for "inappropriate conditions," an appeals court ruled it was a clear invasion of privacy. Judges said Google failed to protect his dignity, despite having policies in place to blur sensitive info. The takeaway: just because Google can see your backyard doesn’t mean it should be publishing your cheeks to the world.

MARKETS

  • Markets kicked off July’s final session on a high after Microsoft and Meta delivered blowout earnings, lifting the AI trade across the board. But early gains didn’t stick. Stocks lost steam throughout the day, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.4% and the Nasdaq giving up 0.5%. The Dow shed 330 points as investors shifted focus from tech euphoria to broader market headwinds.

  • Fresh PCE data showed inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month, right in line with forecasts but still the biggest jump in four months. Core PCE hit 2.8% annually, and personal spending barely budged, suggesting consumers are pulling back. With inflation lingering and earnings no longer enough to carry the market, Wall Street wrapped up July on a cautious note.

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STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

  • Figma skyrocketed 250.00% on its trading debut, with shares more than doubling from the IPO price after demand came in nearly 40x oversubscribed. ($FIG)

  • eBay surged 18.30% after crushing earnings and lifting its forecast, with continued strength from categories like Pokémon and Magic: The Gathering cards. ($EBAY)

  • Carvana jumped 16.96% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 results, including 143,280 vehicles sold—narrowly beating expectations. ($CVNA)

  • CoreWeave gained 10.92% on renewed investor optimism after Microsoft’s earnings signaled continued strength in AI demand. Citi upgraded the stock to buy. ($CRWV)

  • Western Digital climbed 10.16% following a strong Q2 beat, with adjusted earnings and revenue both topping analyst estimates. ($WDC)
    Norwegian Cruise Line rose 9.23% after reporting record quarterly revenue and reaffirming its full-year outlook, citing strong bookings. ($NCLH)

  • Roblox popped 10.28% after raising its full-year bookings forecast and posting a 41% year-over-year jump in average daily users. ($RBLX)

  • Meta Platforms rallied 11.25% following a Q2 revenue beat and bullish guidance for Q3, including a revenue forecast well ahead of analyst expectations. ($META)

  • Microsoft rose 3.95% after beating Q4 expectations on both revenue and earnings, driven by continued growth in cloud and AI. ($MSFT)

What’s down 📉

  • Align Technology collapsed 36.63% after missing Q2 estimates and issuing weak guidance, with revenue guidance far below expectations. ($ALGN)

  • Anheuser-Busch InBev tumbled 13.33% after reporting a 1.9% drop in volume—significantly worse than expected—due to weaker demand in China and Brazil. ($BUD)

  • Arm Holdings sank 13.44% following a revenue miss in its latest quarter, despite meeting earnings expectations. ($ARM)

  • Shake Shack dropped 14.60% after cutting Q3 revenue guidance, citing weaker consumer spending. ($SHAK)

  • Cigna declined 10.23% despite beating earnings and revenue estimates, as investors digested margin concerns. ($CI)

  • Qualcomm fell 7.73% even after beating earnings estimates, as revenue from key business segments came in light. ($QCOM)

  • Bristol Myers Squibb lost 5.81% despite an earnings beat, with investors concerned about upcoming patent cliffs. ($BMY)

  • Ferrari slid 11.11% after posting a revenue miss for Q2, even as EPS matched estimates and full-year guidance was reaffirmed. ($RACE)

  • Paramount dropped 5.49% as shareholders prepared to vote on the form of consideration ahead of the Skydance merger. ($PARA)

IPO
Figma Stock Soars 250% in Blockbuster IPO, Hits $67.6B Valuation

Designing a Market Moment: Design software darling Figma made its public debut Thursday and wasted no time grabbing headlines. The stock opened at $85 and closed with a 250% gain, giving the company a $67.6 billion market cap over triple the $20 billion price tag Adobe once offered before regulators blocked the deal.

Big Win for VC Land

Silicon Valley’s biggest names cashed in at least on paper. Index Ventures, Greylock, Kleiner Perkins, and Sequoia are now sitting on a combined $24 billion in Figma stock. The payday is still locked up for 180 days, but after a long IPO drought, this kind of exit is a confidence booster across the venture world.

Behind the Numbers: Revenue jumped 48% to $749 million in 2024, and Q1 2025 brought another 46% increase. Figma’s bottom line, though, has been less predictable. It posted a $737.8 million profit in 2023 (thanks to Adobe’s $1B breakup fee), but swung to a $732.1 million loss in 2024. Last quarter ended back in the black with $44.9 million.

Figma Buys Bitcoin Too

Adding a little Elon-style flair, Figma has started parking cash in crypto. The company owns a stake in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF and recently picked up $30 million in USD Coin with plans to convert more to BTC. For investors, it’s another wildcard in a market that’s loving bold moves again.

Figma’s debut wasn’t just strong, it was symbolic.

NEWS
Market Movements

EARNINGS
Microsoft and Meta Soar as AI Spending Fuels Market Rally


Microsoft and Meta just reminded everyone who runs this market. Microsoft posted $76.4 billion in quarterly revenue and shot past a $4 trillion market cap for the first time. Azure cloud revenue jumped 39%, and the company set a new spending record with $30 billion in capex last quarter. It’s pouring cash into AI infrastructure, backed by a $368 billion cloud services backlog.

Meta also crushed expectations. Shares jumped over 11% after the company reported $7.14 in EPS, well above the $5.88 estimate. Revenue rose 22% year-over-year to $47.5 billion, and Zuckerberg made it clear he’s not slowing down on AI. Meta is on track to spend up to $72 billion this year, and even more in 2026, as it builds out superintelligence labs and courts elite AI researchers.

AI Is the New GDP Driver

It’s not just tech earnings, it’s a shift in the economic foundation. AI spending is now contributing more to U.S. GDP growth than consumer spending, according to Renaissance Macro. Estimates suggest AI infrastructure buildout could total $7 trillion by 2030. That’s 21% of projected U.S. GDP. And unlike stimulus or defense spending, this wave is entirely privately funded.

That’s sending ripples across sectors. Companies like Amazon and Alphabet are matching Meta and Microsoft with their own massive capex plans. Startups like Anthropic are landing Boeing-sized valuations. The AI gold rush is driving demand for data centers, energy, chips, construction, and talent—all of which feed into a broader economic boost.

Snacks Still Matter: Outside of tech, PepsiCo gave investors something to sip on. Shares surged 7.5% after the company beat Q2 earnings estimates, thanks to strong Zero Sugar sales and snack revamps. Pepsi shut down two plants to cut costs and is focusing on affordability to retain budget-conscious shoppers. Despite shrinking food and beverage volumes, revenue still came in at $22.73 billion.

Tech may be devouring the spotlight and a chunk of the economy but Pepsi’s results show that innovation and pricing power still matter outside Silicon Valley. When snacks hit and costs are trimmed, even soda stocks can ride the rally.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Tomorrow

After a week packed with data, Friday closes things out with a big one—the monthly US jobs report. Economists are bracing for a slowdown, expecting just 117,500 new jobs in July versus 147,000 in June. While mass layoffs haven’t materialized, unemployment is still projected to tick up to 4.2%.

It’s also a busy day for earnings. Exxon and Chevron headline a lineup that includes Colgate-Palmolive, Moderna, Regeneron, Kimberly-Clark, and AMC. With markets on edge from inflation signals and labor data, Friday could be anything but quiet.

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

  • 🧠 TikTok Debuts Fact-Check Feature in U.S: TikTok officially rolled out its community fact-checking tool, Footnotes, to users in the U.S. The feature allows approved contributors to attach context to videos flagged as misleading or false. It’s modeled after X’s Community Notes and aims to fight misinformation with user-generated context. The launch comes as platforms face growing pressure to moderate content ahead of global elections.

  • 🛡 Palo Alto Networks Buys CyberArk for $25B: Cybersecurity giant Palo Alto Networks is acquiring Israeli identity security firm CyberArk in a $25 billion deal. The acquisition unites two leading players in the cybersecurity space, expanding Palo Alto’s reach into identity protection. The deal reflects rising demand for security solutions as cyber threats surge globally. It also signals a growing wave of M&A activity in the defense-tech space.

  • 📰 Amazon Inks AI Licensing Deal With NYT: Amazon is paying the New York Times over $20 million annually to license its content for AI model training. The multi-year deal gives Amazon access to thousands of articles, recipes, and sports stories. It marks a major shift as media outlets begin monetizing their archives for tech firms. The Times has previously sued OpenAI and Microsoft over similar data usage.

    🎥 YouTube Relaxes Profanity Guidelines for Creators: YouTube now allows creators to use strong profanity within the first seven seconds of a video without being demonetized. The updated rules mark a shift from stricter policies that often limited ad revenue for minor language. Creators still face restrictions for extreme or repeated swearing. The change aims to strike a balance between advertiser safety and creator freedom.

  • 🍫 Oreo and Reese’s Unite for Limited Treats: Oreo and Reese’s are teaming up for two new hybrid snacks in a rare cross-brand collaboration. The first is a Reese’s cup packed with Oreo cookie pieces; the second is an Oreo cookie stuffed with Reese’s peanut butter crème. Fans have long called for a collab between the snack rivals. Both products will hit shelves nationwide this fall.

  • 🛬 Fatal DC Crash Hearings Reveal Alarming Errors: Federal hearings began into January’s midair collision between a Black Hawk helicopter and an American Airlines jet near DC, which killed 67 people. Investigators revealed the Black Hawk’s outdated altimeter misread its height by up to 100 feet. Pilots also missed air traffic control instructions, and safety changes were abandoned before the crash. The event marks the deadliest U.S. aviation accident since 2001.

  • 🌊 Scientists Discover Deepest-Ever Ecosystem: Chinese researchers found an ecosystem nearly 6 miles below sea level in Pacific Ocean trenches near Russia and Alaska. Using submersibles, they discovered clusters of worms, mollusks, and clams living without sunlight. Instead of photosynthesis, these organisms survive via chemosynthesis, feeding on methane and hydrogen sulfide. The discovery suggests deep-sea life could be more common than previously believed.

  • 🛰 U.S. and India Launch Precision Earth Satellite: The U.S. and India are deploying a satellite that can track Earth’s surface changes with centimeter-level accuracy. Called NISAR, it can revisit the same location every 12 days, offering unprecedented earth-monitoring capabilities. Separately, researchers found disrupted sleep can damage brain cells and raise dementia risk. Another study suggests viral infections like flu or COVID can reactivate dormant cancer cells.

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