😳 The Fed's Not Flinching

Good afternoon! Microsoft’s latest report confirms what most workers already feel in their bones: the modern workday never really ends. The average employee is interrupted every two minutes during work hours, bombarded with 117 emails a day, and often pulled into a flood of unscheduled meetings — 60% of which aren’t even planned ahead.

Things don’t slow down after hours either. Meetings between 8 p.m. and midnight are up 16% year over year, and nearly 1 in 5 employees are still grinding on weekends. It’s the age of the “infinite workday,” where focus is a luxury and evenings are just email catch-up sessions in disguise.

MARKETS

• Stocks drifted Wednesday as investors digested a Fed decision that left rates untouched and gave few hints about timing cuts. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq barely moved, while the Russell 2000 rose 0.5%.

• Markets were also on edge over rising tension in the Middle East. Trump hinted at possible action against Iran, fueling caution ahead of the Juneteenth holiday (markets are closed tomorrow)..

Get access to the most exclusive offers for private market investors

Looking to invest in real estate, private credit, pre-IPO venture or crypto? AIR Insiders get exclusive offers and perks from leading private market investing tools and platforms, like:

• Up to $250 free from Percent

• 50% off tax and retirement planning from Carry

• $50 of free stock from Public

• A free subscription to Worth Magazine

• $1000 off an annual subscription to DealSheet

• and offers from CapitalPad, Groundfloor, Fundrise, Mogul, and more.

Just sign up for our 2-week free trial to experience all the benefits of being an AIR Insider.

Sign Up For Free

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• Circle Internet Group surged 33.82% after the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS bill, establishing federal rules for stablecoins like USDC. ($CRCL)

• Scholar Rock Holding added 16.60% after announcing its drug helps patients on Eli Lilly’s obesity treatment retain more muscle. ($SRRK)

• Coinbase jumped 16.32% and JPMorgan rose 1.65% as crypto-related stocks rallied on the GENIUS Act’s passage. ($COIN, $JPM)

• Bausch Health climbed 7.85% after John Paulson acquired 3.6 million shares, boosting his stake to nearly 9%. ($BHC)

• Korn Ferry gained 6.46% after posting top and bottom line beats in its Q4 earnings report. ($KFY)

• Sunrun recovered 6.06% following its worst trading day ever, as solar stocks rebounded across the board. ($RUN)

• Enphase Energy rose 4.83% and SolarEdge climbed 6.73% in the broader solar bounce. ($ENPH, $SEDG)

• TKO Group popped 4.75% after receiving upgrades from both Citi and Bernstein on expected media revenue strength. ($TKO)

• Affirm rose 2.97% after announcing a $3 billion loan sale facility with PGIM Fixed Income. ($AFRM)

What’s down 📉

• CERo Therapeutics plunged 42.01% after pulling back from a massive run following FDA orphan drug designation news. ($CERO)

• Regencell Bioscience sank 26% as the meme rally in the herbal medicine stock cooled off. ($RGC)

• Mastercard dropped 5.39% and Visa fell 4.88% amid fears that stablecoins could disrupt the credit card business. ($MA, $V)

• Zoetis lost 4.09% after a downgrade from Stifel over concerns about revenue deceleration and increased competition. ($ZTS)

• Steel Dynamics slipped 2.29% after issuing Q2 guidance that missed Wall Street estimates. ($STLD)

THE FED
Federal Reserve holds interest rate steady for fourth time in a row

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% for a fifth straight meeting, brushing off pressure from President Trump and waiting to see how inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical chaos shake out. The latest projections still show two rate cuts penciled in for this year—but that “penciling” is getting shakier by the month. Seven Fed officials now expect zero cuts in 2025, up from four in March.

Chair Jerome Powell, playing it cool at the press conference, said the Fed is “well-positioned to wait.” Translation: Don’t expect rate relief until we see what these tariffs actually do to prices.

 Tariffs, Tensions, and Trade-offs

New forecasts show the Fed expects weaker growth (1.4% vs. 1.7%), higher inflation (3% vs. 2.7%), and rising unemployment (4.5%) - all while oil prices threaten to spike again thanks to Middle East tensions. Powell noted that tariffs haven’t hit inflation yet, but he’s expecting them to soon. “Ultimately the cost of the tariff has to be paid,” he said, sounding less like an economist and more like your dad reviewing a restaurant bill.

Despite Trump’s ongoing calls for aggressive cuts, Powell hasn’t budged. And history is on his side. Fed Chairs in their final years tend to get stingy: Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen all held the line before passing the baton.

Reading the Room (and the Dot Plot)

The Fed’s updated “dot plot” shows a split decision: 10 officials still think two cuts are coming, but conviction is clearly fading. And while May’s inflation data came in cooler than expected, many believe the pain from tariffs will show up more as margin compression than consumer price spikes. That means businesses take the hit before shoppers do.

Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and traders are betting a Trump-appointed successor would cut more aggressively next year. Until then, the Fed seems content to sit on its hands — tight labor market, global instability, and all.

Bottom line: The Fed doesn’t want to cut too soon and reignite inflation before seeing the effect of tariffs. Powell and company are playing the extremely cautious game. So for now, it’s wait, watch, and hope nothing else catches fire.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 🚗 Waymo applies to launch NYC robotaxis: The Alphabet-backed company applied for a permit to begin autonomous driving with safety drivers in New York City, aiming for full driverless service soon. It currently leads the space with 250,000 trips per week. ($GOOGL)

• 🎮 Nintendo stock hits record high on Switch 2 hype: Shares surged 6% Wednesday as the console maker rides momentum from the Switch 2’s early success, including 3.5 million game sales in four days. It expects to move 15M units and 45M games this fiscal year. ($NTDOY)

• 💥 TKO jumps on live event optimism: The WWE and UFC parent rose 5% after Bernstein reiterated an “outperform” rating and praised the company’s record event performance, merchandising boom, and potential $1B+ UFC media rights deal. ($TKO)

• 💬 Meta’s WhatsApp ads could rake in billions: Morgan Stanley projects $3B–$5B in annual revenue from WhatsApp’s new in-app ads by 2027, noting 1.5B users spend several minutes a day on the Updates tab. ($META)

• 📣 Meta Offered $100M to Lure OpenAI Talent: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said Meta offered $100 million bonuses to poach employees for its superintelligence team, though no key staff have left. ($META)

• 💥 Air India Crash Points to Boeing Generator Failure: Investigators said the plane’s emergency generator was active at the time of the crash, raising concerns about engine or hydraulic failure. ($BA, $GE)

• 💸 Musk’s xAI to Raise $5B Through High-Yield Debt: Elon Musk’s xAI is marketing a $5 billion junk bond deal led by Morgan Stanley, offering yields up to 12% despite tepid demand. ($MS)

• 📺 Streaming Viewership Surpasses Cable and Broadcast: Streaming hit 44.8% of total TV viewership in May, led by YouTube and Netflix, surpassing the combined share of cable and broadcast. ($GOOGL, $NFLX)

• ⏳ Trump Grants TikTok Another 90-Day Delay: President Trump extended the deadline to divest TikTok, delaying enforcement of the U.S. ban targeting ByteDance.

• 💊 AbbVie’s Migraine Drug Beats Generic in Trial: Qulipta performed better than a generic rival in a late-stage study, strengthening AbbVie’s neuroscience lineup. ($ABBV)

• 🏛️ Democrats Target Pharma Over Tax Breaks and Lobbying: Lawmakers are scrutinizing major pharmaceutical firms for low tax payments and lobbying amid ongoing Senate tax bill talks. ($PFE, $JNJ, $MRK, $ABBV, $AMGN)

• ⚖️ Elon Musk’s X Sues New York Over Hate Speech Law: X is suing New York State, claiming its social media disclosure law violates First Amendment protections.

CRYPTO
Circle, Coinbase shares rise as Senate clears path for stablecoin regulation

💵 Capitol Gains for Crypto

Washington just handed crypto its biggest legislative win yet. The Senate passed the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan bill that puts formal guardrails around stablecoins—a type of digital dollar that doesn’t do Bitcoin-level mood swings.

Circle, the issuer of USDC, soared 33% after the vote. Coinbase, which co-founded USDC and splits revenue with Circle, jumped 16%. Both stocks are riding high on expectations that this bill could kickstart the next wave of stablecoin adoption—just as traditional crypto remains under pressure.

A Framework (and a Flex)

The GENIUS Act—yes, short for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins—creates the first federal framework for these dollar-pegged tokens. It requires stablecoins to be fully backed by reserves like cash or short-term Treasurys, bans yield-bearing versions for consumers, and forces monthly audits.

It still needs to pass the House, where Republicans are pushing a slightly different version, but President Trump says he wants to sign it before Congress’s August recess. Either way, crypto lobbyists are treating this like a regulatory hallelujah.

Winners and Losers: Stablecoins may finally have a seat at the grown-up table but not everyone’s thrilled. Shares of traditional payments giants took a hit, with Visa and Mastercard both falling more than 3.5%. Investors see the writing on the blockchain: if stablecoins gain traction, especially for everyday payments, they could eat into legacy transaction volume.

That shift isn’t just theoretical. Coinbase just announced a new stablecoin-based payments product for e-commerce merchants, promising instant settlement and lower fees—essentially a direct shot at the Visa/Mastercard duopoly.

Bottom line: With Amazon, Walmart, and even banks exploring stablecoin use, the bill could spark explosive growth in the $260 billion market—and shift financial power toward crypto-native players. The Senate may have just paved the way for the next big fintech shakeup.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Tomorrow

Tomorrow’s a quiet one—markets are closed for Juneteenth, and so are we. We’ll be back Friday, ready to send you into the weekend fully stocked and loaded

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• 📉 Retail Sales Slide Again: U.S. retail sales dropped 0.9% in May, marking the second consecutive monthly decline and the steepest drop since early 2025. Spending at restaurants and bars fell the most since 2023, as anxious consumers react to inflation and rising tariffs.

• ⚡ Duracell Sues Energizer Over Battery Claims: Duracell filed a lawsuit accusing Energizer of falsely advertising that its batteries last 10% longer. The company says the claim misleads consumers and isn’t backed by reliable testing, escalating tensions in the battery wars.

• 🛏️ Mike Lindell Loses $2.3M Defamation Case: MyPillow’s Mike Lindell was found liable for defaming Dominion Voting Systems employee Eric Coomer, after repeatedly claiming he helped rig the 2020 election. A jury ordered him to pay $2.3 million in damages.

• 🍇 Roblox’s Grow a Garden Breaks Records: A gardening sim made by a 16-year-old just hit 16M concurrent users, breaking Fortnite’s record. Players raise crops and animals in-game, while a thriving black market has sprouted on Discord and eBay.

• 📺 Streaming Surpasses Cable + Broadcast: According to Nielsen, streaming now accounts for 45% of U.S. TV time—beating cable and broadcast for the first time. YouTube and Tubi lead the way, and surprisingly, viewers 65+ are the fastest-growing demographic.

• 🌈 Kraft Heinz to Ditch Artificial Dyes: Kraft Heinz will remove synthetic dyes from all products by 2027 following a federal phase-out. The company says 90% of its items already meet the standard—and yes, your ketchup is safe.

• 🚨 Brad Lander Arrested Outside Immigration Court: New York City Comptroller and mayoral candidate Brad Lander was detained by ICE agents on June 17 after attempting to escort an immigrant defendant out of a hearing. He was charged with assaulting and impeding federal officers—claims he denies—and later released after the intervention of Governor Hochul.

• 🇮🇷 Trump Threatens Iran’s Supreme Leader: Trump claimed the U.S. has “total control” of Iran’s skies and called Ayatollah Khamenei an “easy target” in a Truth Social post. He also demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” as airstrikes continued.

• 🤖 OpenAI and Microsoft Feud Over Ownership: The once-close partners are clashing. OpenAI is reportedly considering accusing Microsoft of anticompetitive behavior as it pushes to become a public-benefit corporation. The dispute centers around how much Microsoft would own in the new setup.

REFERRAL
Share Investinq 🤝 Acquire Swag

If you love reading our newsletter, don’t be selfish — share it. Odds are your favorite finance bro, trader, investor, or stock market fanatic will too.

Don’t keep all the market news to yourself — share the love using the unique link below.

We deliver you all the news for free every single day (go on… help us out ;)

And here’s the kicker: every referral you make gets you entered into a raffle to win some awesome prizes listed below. Just share the link below and you’ll be entered once they sign up.

RESOURCES
The Federal Reserve Resource

Join our small yet growing subreddit 🚀: https://www.reddit.com/r/investinq/

Wall Street Reads 💎 (Best Books):

• Stock Market Books📚
  https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NQ-vdLE1afXFcc5PwDRp1d5VSHzDly88/view?usp=sharing

• Options Trading Books📗 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xeYL3IpjT623CJpO_Ole1Z-GuzHQQJzg/view?usp=sharing

• Business Books 📖https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VfuTqhPVB2YjDOd0N56UhF6kmZU-kLci/view?usp=sharing

Check out our latest issues 🎯: https://investinq.beehiiv.com