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  • 🎰 Robinhood Now Let's You Bet On Events

🎰 Robinhood Now Let's You Bet On Events

+ PepsiCo to Acquire Soda Brand Poppi for Nearly $2 Billion

March 17, 2025

Good afternoon! Virgin Atlantic wants to take your commute to new heights — literally. It's teaming up with Joby Aviation to launch air taxi services in the UK, where customers can book a ride in an all-electric Joby aircraft through Virgin’s app. The flying taxis can hit 200 mph, take off vertically, and are 100 times quieter than regular planes. Prices are expected to match premium rideshares, but it’s all grounded until Joby gets final FAA approval.

Joby has already secured a key FAA certification to operate air taxi services but still needs two more green lights before passengers can hop on board. The six-rotor aircraft seats five and can cover 150 miles on a single charge. While full operations are still a few years away, Virgin and Joby are betting that sky-high commutes could be the future.

MARKETS

*Stock data as of market close*

  • Wall Street shook off the Monday blues, building on last week’s rebound as retail sales gave investors something to cheer about. US retail sales rose 0.2% in February—not exactly earth-shattering, but a lot better than January’s 1.2% drop. That was enough to push stocks higher, with the Dow posting its best two-day stretch since November as trade policy chaos took a brief backseat.

  • The S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% to settle at 17,809, despite a rough day for Nvidia and Tesla. With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting looming midweek, traders seem cautiously optimistic that this rally might have some legs.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

  • Intel climbed 6.82% after a regulatory filing revealed that incoming CEO Lip-Bu Tan will purchase $25 million worth of company shares within 30 days of his appointment. ($INTC)

  • Robinhood jumped 7.08% after announcing a new prediction markets hub, allowing users to bet on events from sports outcomes to Federal Reserve decisions. ($HOOD)

  • Baidu rose 9% after unveiling two new versions of its AI model Ernie. ($BIDU)

  • Norwegian Cruise Line gained 4.43% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral, citing stable booking trends and steady onboard spending. ($NCLH)

  • Monday. com popped 3.85% after D.A. Davidson upgraded the stock to buy, pointing to cash flow durability and an attractive valuation after a recent pullback. ($MNDY)

  • Blackstone climbed 4.89% following an upgrade to buy from UBS, which cited the firm’s strong long-term growth potential and reasonable valuation. ($BX)

  • Netflix gained 3.49% after MoffettNathanson upgraded the stock to buy from neutral, citing higher monetization potential. ($NFLX)

What’s down 📉

  • Incyte fell 8.62% after the release of phase three trial data for its skin condition treatment showed mixed results, with the drug effective for less than half of participants. ($INCY)

  • Tesla slipped 4.79% after Mizuho cut its price target from $515 to $430, citing concerns over weaker EV sales ahead. ($TSLA)

  • Affirm sank 4.23% after CNBC reported that Klarna will replace Affirm as the exclusive buy now, pay later provider for Walmart. ($AFRM)

TRADING
Robinhood Bets Big on Prediction Markets

Robinhood is opening the door to a new kind of gambling — but with a stock market twist.

The trading app rolled out a prediction markets hub on Monday, letting retail traders bet on the outcome of events ranging from interest rate decisions to March Madness basketball tournaments. The feature is powered by Kalshi, a regulated exchange that recently got the green light to offer event contracts — including election-based bets — after a lengthy legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

How it works: Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts based on the likelihood of an event happening. Prices typically range from $0 to $1, with the payout determined by the event's outcome.

  • Contracts are priced between $0 and $1 based on the probability of an event happening.

  • If an outcome occurs, the contract settles at $1; if it doesn’t, it settles at $0.

  • For example, if you buy a contract predicting that the Fed’s upper bound interest rate will be 5.5% in May at $0.60, and that’s the outcome, you pocket $1 (a 66% gain). If the Fed sets a different rate, you lose the $0.60.

A controversial play: Robinhood tested the waters in February by offering Super Bowl-related contracts — but quickly yanked them after the CFTC raised concerns about whether they fell under “gaming,” which would push them into the murky territory of gambling laws. Betting on sports or elections is legal in some states but off-limits in others — and regulators aren’t thrilled about blurring those lines.

“We believe in the power of prediction markets,” said JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s VP of futures and international. “They play an important role at the intersection of news, economics, politics, sports, and culture.”

Betting or investing? Prediction markets have gained traction as a way to gauge real-world expectations. The theory is that putting money on the line makes people more honest about what they think will happen. Platforms like Polymarket have already shown that appetite is there — it pulled in billions in volume around the 2024 presidential election.

But Robinhood’s move raises fresh regulatory questions. The CFTC previously rejected Kalshi’s proposal for political event contracts, and the Trump-era CFTC is set to revisit its stance on prediction markets in an upcoming roundtable.

What’s next? Robinhood’s push into prediction markets could be huge if it clears the regulatory hurdles. Market-making on real-world events might give Robinhood an edge in attracting younger, more risk-tolerant traders — but if the CFTC cracks down, this could be one bet that doesn’t pay off.

NEWS
Market Movements

ACQUISITION
PepsiCo to Acquire Soda Brand Poppi for Nearly $2 Billion


PepsiCo is making a gut-health play, announcing Monday that it’s buying prebiotic soda brand Poppi for $1.95 billion. The deal includes $300 million in tax benefits, bringing the net price down to $1.65 billion — with more payouts on the table if Poppi hits certain sales targets.

Poppi's Rise in the Functional Soda Market

Poppi has become a star in the growing “functional soda” market, offering drinks with prebiotics, fruit juice, and apple cider vinegar — all with 5 grams of sugar or less. The health-forward pitch has fueled Poppi’s rise, helping it and competitor Olipop grab 2.7% of the U.S. carbonated beverage market, up from 1.4% last year. Pepsi’s rival Coca-Cola recently launched its own prebiotic soda, Simply Pop, signaling that gut-health drinks are officially mainstream.

Celebrity Backing and Marketing Power

Poppi’s success has been powered by smart marketing and celebrity backing. After securing funding from Rohan Oza on Shark Tank in 2018, the brand attracted investors like Ellie Goulding, Halsey, and NBA stars Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love. Poppi’s second straight Super Bowl ad this year underscored its growing cultural clout.

Pepsi's Push Beyond Sugary Drinks: PepsiCo has been expanding beyond traditional sodas as sugary drink sales stall. Last year, it acquired Siete Foods for $1.2 billion and bought out its hummus joint venture Sabra. CEO Ramon Laguarta called Poppi a "perfect addition" to Pepsi's lineup as consumers increasingly prioritize health and wellness.

Betting Big on Functional Sodas: The deal isn’t without risks — Poppi just settled an $8.9 million class-action lawsuit over its health claims — but Pepsi is betting that functional sodas are more than just a fad. And with the category expected to hit $2 billion by 2029, it looks like Pepsi wants to lead the pack.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Tomorrow

Tomorrow’s main economic spotlight will be on the housing starts and building permits report from the Census Bureau. It’s a forward-looking gauge of the housing market—more construction and permits would signal stronger real estate supply down the line.

But the real action is with the Federal Reserve, which kicks off its two-day policy meeting tomorrow. No big announcements are expected until Wednesday, but that won’t stop every market pundit from speculating about what Jerome Powell and his team are whispering about behind closed doors.

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

RESOURCES
The Federal Reserve Resource

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