🏁 Rivian Is Open For Business

Good afternoon! Cracker Barrel isn’t cracking under the pressure of rising egg prices—instead, it’s roasting Waffle House for adding a 50-cent surcharge to egg dishes. Taking a shot at its competitor, Cracker Barrel declared, “A surcharge on eggs? Well, there’s nothing hospitable about that.” Instead of charging extra, it’s offering double rewards points on all egg orders through Feb. 12.

With ~162 million eggs served annually, Cracker Barrel knows its audience and isn’t about to start yolking them with added fees. Meanwhile, Waffle House remains silent on the egg-flation drama, leaving customers to decide whether their breakfast loyalty is worth an extra couple of quarters.

MARKETS

• Wall Street kicked off the week on a high note, shaking off tariff jitters as tech stocks powered major indexes higher. The Nasdaq led the charge with a 1% gain, while the S&P 500 and Dow climbed 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. Investors largely brushed off President Trump’s latest tariff threats, focusing instead on a rally in AI and semiconductor stocks.

• Elsewhere, gold surged past $2,900 for the first time as traders sought safety amid policy uncertainty. Steelmaker stocks also caught a bid after Trump hinted at 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Despite lingering inflation concerns, markets started the week on a bullish note, proving that not even trade war worries can slow down Big Tech’s momentum.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• Monday.com surged 26.46% after crushing fourth-quarter earnings estimates, reporting $1.08 EPS vs. expectations of $0.79 EPS and strong revenue growth. ($MNDY)

• Super Micro Computer jumped 17.56% ahead of its business update and Q2 earnings report, fueling speculation of strong AI-related demand. ($SMCI)

• Rockwell Automation climbed 12.65% after beating earnings expectations with cost-cutting efforts driving profitability. ($ROK)

• BP popped 6.66% after reports surfaced that activist investor Elliott Management took a stake in the oil giant. ($BP)

• Cleveland-Cliffs soared 17.93% following Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. ($CLF)

• Nucor added 5.58% as tariff-driven optimism boosted demand expectations for U.S. steelmakers. ($NUE)

• Lyft gained 6.7% after the ride-hailing company announced plans to launch autonomous robotaxis by 2026. ($LYFT)

• Steel Dynamics rose 4.86% following the Trump administration's new tariffs on metals. ($STLD)

• U.S. Steel advanced 4.79% as steel stocks surged on tariff news. ($X)

• Hims & Hers Health jumped 5.22% despite controversy surrounding its Super Bowl commercial, which promoted low-cost semaglutide weight-loss treatments. ($HIMS)

What’s down 📉

• Semtech plummeted 31.0% after warning of severely lower fiscal 2026 net sales due to weak demand for its CopperEdge products. ($SMTC)

• ON Semiconductor fell 8.21% after missing Q4 earnings and revenue expectations, while providing weak forward guidance. ($ON)

• Incyte declined 7.86% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 earnings of $1.43 EPS vs. $1.49 expected. ($INCY)

EV
Rivian Is Now Selling Electric Vans To Anyone Wo Wants One

After years of being Amazon’s personal EV courier, Rivian’s electric delivery van is officially open for business—to all businesses. The EV startup announced that it will now sell its plug-in cargo van to fleet operators of all sizes, breaking away from its Amazon exclusivity deal, which expired in late 2023. But before you get excited about converting one into your dream #vanlife home-on-wheels, there’s a catch—these vans are strictly for commercial buyers.

More Customers, More Cash?

For Rivian, this move is more than just a strategic shift—it’s a financial lifeline. The company raked in $742 million from Amazon-related sales in the first nine months of 2024, accounting for nearly a quarter of its total revenue. But with Amazon having only taken 20,000 vans—just a fraction of its original 100,000-unit commitment—Rivian is now opening the floodgates to new customers in hopes of keeping its production lines humming. Fleet deliveries are set to begin in Q2, and Rivian says it will sell as few as one van or as many as thousands, depending on demand.

A Market Ripe for Disruption

The commercial EV space is heating up. While Rivian is just now widening its customer base, competitors like Ford’s E-Transit and Mercedes-Benz’s eSprinter are already jostling for fleet dominance. Even General Motors’ BrightDrop—once thought to be a rising star—has struggled with market volatility, forcing GM to bring the business back in-house. Rivian’s edge? Its vans boast higher profit margins than its consumer vehicles, and the company can cash in on software subscriptions for fleet management, sweetening the long-term revenue pot.

Will It Be Enough?

Rivian is still battling cost pressures and supply chain hiccups, including a critical parts shortage that temporarily idled production last year. The company is also racing to launch its more affordable R2 SUV, a make-or-break model for its future. But by expanding sales of its delivery vans beyond Amazon, Rivian is making a calculated bet that businesses are ready to electrify their fleets—and that it can carve out a bigger slice of the commercial EV market before the competition fully revs up.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 🏪 McDonald's earnings miss estimates: McDonald's Q4 revenue fell short at $6.39B vs. the expected $6.44B, as U.S. same-store sales declined 1.4% due to lower customer spending and an E. coli outbreak. EPS met forecasts at $2.83, while international sales grew. ($MCD)

• 🏭 Nippon Steel's U.S. Steel bid faces hurdles: Nippon Steel's $14.9B bid for U.S. Steel is in doubt after President Trump stated no foreign entity could hold a majority stake and announced new tariffs. ($X)

• 🔧 OpenAI developing its own AI chip: OpenAI is finalizing its first in-house AI chip, set for production at TSMC, aiming to reduce reliance on Nvidia. Mass production is targeted for 2026. ($TSM)

• 👨‍💼 Meta set for performance-based job cuts: Meta will begin performance-based layoffs on Feb. 10, affecting employees in multiple countries. CEO Mark Zuckerberg aims to "raise the bar on performance." ($META)

• ⛽ BP stock jumps on Elliott stake: BP shares surged nearly 7% after reports that activist hedge fund Elliott Management has taken a stake, potentially pressuring the company to restructure its oil and gas business. BP reports Q4 earnings on Tuesday. ($BP)

• 📡 T-Mobile launching Starlink-powered service: T-Mobile will introduce its Starlink-powered satellite-to-cell service in July for $15/month, targeting remote connectivity. ($TMUS)

• 📦 Amazon faces major union vote: Over 4,000 Amazon workers in North Carolina are voting on whether to unionize under CAUSE. If successful, it would be only the second unionized Amazon facility. ($AMZN)

• 📡 Nokia appoints new CEO: Nokia has named Intel’s AI chief, Justin Hotard, as its new CEO, effective April 1. ($NOK)

• 🎮 PlayStation Network outage resolved: Sony's PlayStation Network suffered a global outage lasting nearly 24 hours, disrupting account access, gaming, and the PlayStation Store. ($SONY)

• 🛬 Boeing signals India expansion depends on orders: Boeing indicated it needs more Indian orders before setting up a commercial aircraft assembly line in India, despite government interest. ($BA)

TRADE
Trump Plans to Impose 25% Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum Imports

Trump is back with his favorite economic sledgehammer: tariffs. The president announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, hitting major suppliers like Canada, Mexico, and the EU—with zero exemptions. The move revives his 2018 playbook but goes even further, doubling down on a protectionist strategy that could rattle global trade. Oh, and he’s not stopping there—Trump also teased “reciprocal tariffs” on countries that impose duties on U.S. goods, set to roll out in the coming days.

Winners & Losers

Steel and aluminum stocks popped like champagne at a lobbyist’s victory party. Cleveland-Cliffs surged 18%, Nucor climbed 5.6%, and U.S. Steel jumped 4.8%, while aluminum heavyweight Alcoa saw a 2.2% boost. But it wasn’t all celebration—automakers and aerospace firms are already bracing for higher costs. General Motors slipped 1.4%, while Ford remained flat. Analysts expect steel prices to rise by $150 per ton, meaning manufacturers will be paying a hefty Trump tax.

Trade War 2.0?

Cue the diplomatic rage. The EU called the move “unlawful and counterproductive”, while South Korea and Japanare scrambling for alternatives. China isn’t waiting around—it’s already hitting back with a 15% tariff on U.S. energy imports and 10% duties on American oil and agricultural equipment. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico—Trump’s biggest suppliers—are trying to negotiate their way out of the mess before it tanks their exports.

Will He, Won’t He?

Here’s the thing: Trump loves a good tariff threat but doesn’t always follow through. He recently delayed duties on Canada and Mexico, and he’s been tossing around potential levies on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and oil like a game of trade war bingo. So while businesses are gearing up for impact, there’s always the chance that this is just another round of Trumpian brinkmanship. Either way, Wall Street is watching, and global markets are holding their breath.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Tomorrow

Small business sentiment takes center stage tomorrow with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, offering a glimpse into how Main Street feels about the economy. The index measures confidence across hiring plans, inflation concerns, and future sales expectations—key indicators of economic momentum.

December’s reading hit a six-year high, thanks to post-election optimism, but with fresh trade tensions stirring, economists expect sentiment to have cooled. Meanwhile, earnings season rolls on with reports from Shopify ($SHOP), Super Micro Computer ($SMCI), BP ($BP), Lyft ($LYFT), Marriott International ($MAR), Zillow ($Z), AutoNation ($AN), Sunoco ($SUN), and Kellogg ($K).

Before Market Open:

• Coca-Cola has long been the gold standard for stability, but tariffs could shake up its predictable playbook. Higher import/export costs and a stronger dollar may force price hikes, though Coke’s solid margins give it some breathing room. Investors will be looking for reassurance that management has a plan to navigate the turbulence. Consensus: $0.52 EPS, $10.7 billion in revenue. ($KO)

After Market Close:

• DoorDash has gone from cash-burning underdog to food delivery heavyweight, crushing rivals and rewarding shareholders with a 65% gain in the past year. With revenue surging and profits stacking up, the company’s momentum looks strong—but at these levels, some investors may wait for a pullback before jumping in. Wall Street expects another solid quarter when the company reports tomorrow. Consensus: $0.33 EPS, $2.84 billion in revenue. ($DASH)

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• 🏆 Eagles Crush Chiefs 40–22 to Win Super Bowl LIX: The Philadelphia Eagles dominated the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of their Super Bowl LVII showdown, preventing the Chiefs from securing a historic third straight title. Jalen Hurts led the charge, earning MVP honors with an early touchdown and a commanding performance. The Chiefs struggled, with Patrick Mahomes sacked six times and intercepted twice. The game lacked drama, but the Gatorade shower came early for Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni.

• 📱 Elon Musk Denies Interest in Acquiring TikTok: Musk dismissed speculation that he was planning to buy TikTok, stating he has not submitted a bid and has no plans to pursue the platform. He emphasized that he prefers building companies from scratch rather than acquiring existing ones, noting that his purchase of X (formerly Twitter) was an exception aimed at preserving free speech. The remarks come as TikTok faces continued uncertainty over its future in the U.S. due to national security concerns.

• 📉 NIH Cuts Medical Research Budgets, Putting Billions at Stake: The National Institutes of Health is implementing sweeping cuts to overhead funding for research grants, aiming to save taxpayers over $4 billion. Scientists warn that the reduction in funding could halt medical breakthroughs, threaten jobs, and disrupt economies reliant on NIH-backed institutions. The cap on indirect costs, now set at 15%, will impact universities and hospitals nationwide, with some institutions facing losses of hundreds of millions in funding.

• 📊 America’s Workforce Now Dominated by Big Corporations: A new analysis shows that for the first time in history, the majority of Americans work for companies with 500 or more employees. Since the 2008 financial crisis, corporate giants have expanded at a faster rate than small businesses, reshaping the job market. Grocery chains have seen the most significant shift, with mom-and-pop stores making up two-thirds of the industry in 1978 but only one-third in 2022

• 📈 China Retaliates With Tariffs as Trade War Escalates: China’s new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 15%, took effect today, targeting U.S. exports of natural gas, oil, coal, automotive parts, and farm equipment. The move comes in response to President Trump’s February 4 tariffs on Chinese goods. Experts are watching to see whether further negotiations will de-escalate tensions or if additional tariffs will drive up U.S. consumer prices on goods like electronics and appliances.

• 🤖 World Leaders Convene in Paris to Shape AI Regulations: Global policymakers and tech CEOs are meeting at the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit in Paris to debate the future of AI governance. China's presence, led by Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing, highlights the country's growing role in AI policy. The U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, is expected to push for an "America First" approach, emphasizing national AI dominance. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will argue for prioritizing AI expansion over excessive regulation, setting up a clash with officials concerned about AI risks.

• 💰 U.S. Sent $71.9 Billion in Foreign Aid in 2023: The U.S. government allocated $71.9 billion in foreign aid last fiscal year, funding programs across 177 countries and 29 regions. Ukraine received $14.4 billion in direct financial support amid its ongoing conflict with Russia. Other major recipients included sub-Saharan African and South Asian nations, with aid directed toward health initiatives, economic development, and humanitarian assistance.

• 🏛 CFPB Ordered to Shut Down Operations: Acting Director Russell Vought has directed nearly 2,000 employees of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to stop work and avoid the office, effectively halting operations. The order also closes CFPB’s Washington headquarters and blocks new funding requests, aligning with the administration's effort to downsize federal agencies. The move has triggered legal challenges and protests from employees and lawmakers concerned about the lack of consumer financial oversight.

• 🔄 Hamas and Israel Conduct Prisoner Exchange: Hamas has released three Israeli hostages, while Israel freed 183 Palestinian prisoners in a negotiated exchange. The released hostages appeared frail, underscoring the difficult conditions of their captivity. This swap is part of an ongoing ceasefire agreement, with negotiations continuing in hopes of securing the release of more captives.

• 🌍 Trump Claims Putin Open to Ending Ukraine War: President Donald Trump revealed he has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the war in Ukraine. Trump stated that Putin "wants to see people stop dying" and expressed optimism about reaching a swift resolution. The Kremlin has not confirmed the discussions, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisted that any settlement must include security guarantees to prevent future aggression.

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